Salesforce Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CRM Stock  USD 217.39  1.95  0.91%   
Salesforce Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Salesforce stock prices and determine the direction of Salesforce's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Salesforce historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Salesforce naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Salesforce systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Salesforce fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Salesforce to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Salesforce Stock, please use our How to Invest in Salesforce guide.
  
Salesforce Receivables Turnover is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Salesforce reported last year Receivables Turnover of 3.06. As of 30th of May 2023, Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to grow to 5.27, while Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to drop 7.97. . As of 30th of May 2023, Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 958.2 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 967.3 M.

Open Interest Against 2023-06-02 Salesforce Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Salesforce's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Salesforce's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Salesforce stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Salesforce's open interest, investors have to compare it to Salesforce's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Salesforce is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Salesforce. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Salesforce cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Salesforce's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Salesforce's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Salesforce simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Salesforce are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Salesforce prices get older.

Salesforce Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Salesforce on the next trading day is expected to be 217.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.35, mean absolute percentage error of 8.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.94.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Salesforce Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Salesforce's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Salesforce Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest SalesforceSalesforce Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Salesforce Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Salesforce's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Salesforce's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 215.36 and 219.42, respectively. We have considered Salesforce's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 217.39
215.36
Downside
217.39
Expected Value
219.42
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Salesforce stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Salesforce stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.3848
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.516
MADMean absolute deviation2.349
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0121
SAESum of the absolute errors140.94
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Salesforce forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Salesforce observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Salesforce

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Salesforce. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Salesforce's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Salesforce in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
214.51216.54218.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
193.90229.96231.99
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
200.02208.69217.36
Details
35 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
119.00217.85250.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Salesforce. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Salesforce's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Salesforce's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Salesforce.

Other Forecasting Options for Salesforce

For every potential investor in Salesforce, whether a beginner or expert, Salesforce's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Salesforce Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Salesforce. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Salesforce's price trends.

Salesforce Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Salesforce stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Salesforce could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Salesforce by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Ace Global BusinessAinsworth Game TechnologyCosan SA ADRAvid TechnologyPinduoduoUniversal Music GroupMiniso Group HoldingLtdPlaytika Holding CorpAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Salesforce Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Salesforce's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Salesforce's current price.

Salesforce Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Salesforce stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Salesforce shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Salesforce stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Salesforce entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Salesforce Risk Indicators

The analysis of Salesforce's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Salesforce's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Salesforce stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Salesforce without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Salesforce

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Salesforce position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Salesforce will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Salesforce Stock

+0.63DTDynatrace Holdings LLC Fiscal Quarter End 30th of June 2023 PairCorr
+0.7DVDoubleVerify Holdings Fiscal Quarter End 30th of June 2023 PairCorr

Moving against Salesforce Stock

-0.78DPSIDecisionPoint Systems Fiscal Quarter End 30th of June 2023 PairCorr
-0.77AYXAlteryx Fiscal Quarter End 30th of June 2023 PairCorr
-0.75EGANEGain Fiscal Quarter End 30th of June 2023 PairCorr
-0.74VERBVERB TECHNOLOGY COMPANY Fiscal Quarter End 30th of June 2023 PairCorr
-0.73BLBlackline Fiscal Quarter End 30th of June 2023 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Salesforce could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Salesforce when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Salesforce - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Salesforce to buy it.
The correlation of Salesforce is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Salesforce moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Salesforce moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Salesforce can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Salesforce to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Salesforce Stock, please use our How to Invest in Salesforce guide. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

Complementary Tools for Salesforce Stock analysis

When running Salesforce's price analysis, check to measure Salesforce's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Salesforce is operating at the current time. Most of Salesforce's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Salesforce's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Salesforce's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Salesforce to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Salesforce's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Salesforce. If investors know Salesforce will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Salesforce listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.55) 
Earnings Share
0.22
Revenue Per Share
31.605
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.144
Return On Assets
0.012
The market value of Salesforce is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Salesforce that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Salesforce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Salesforce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Salesforce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Salesforce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Salesforce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Salesforce is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Salesforce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Salesforce to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Salesforce Stock, please use our How to Invest in Salesforce guide.
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