Crm Smallmid Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

CRMAX Fund  USD 11.42  0.09  0.79%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crm Smallmid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 11.44 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.08  and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.78. Crm Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Crm Smallmid stock prices and determine the direction of Crm Smallmid Cap's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Crm Smallmid's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crm Smallmid to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Crm Smallmid cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Crm Smallmid's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Crm Smallmid's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Crm Smallmid works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Crm Smallmid Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Crm Smallmid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 11.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Crm Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Crm Smallmid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Crm Smallmid Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Crm SmallmidCrm Smallmid Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Crm Smallmid Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Crm Smallmid's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Crm Smallmid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.48 and 12.41, respectively. We have considered Crm Smallmid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.42
11.44
Expected Value
12.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Crm Smallmid mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Crm Smallmid mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0186
MADMean absolute deviation0.0811
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0076
SAESum of the absolute errors4.784
When Crm Smallmid Cap prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Crm Smallmid Cap trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Crm Smallmid observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Crm Smallmid

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Crm Smallmid Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Crm Smallmid's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.7811.0811.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Crm Smallmid. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Crm Smallmid's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Crm Smallmid's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Crm Smallmid Cap.

Other Forecasting Options for Crm Smallmid

For every potential investor in Crm, whether a beginner or expert, Crm Smallmid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Crm Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Crm. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Crm Smallmid's price trends.

Crm Smallmid Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Crm Smallmid mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Crm Smallmid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Crm Smallmid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Crm Smallmid Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Crm Smallmid's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Crm Smallmid's current price.

Crm Smallmid Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Crm Smallmid mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Crm Smallmid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Crm Smallmid mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Crm Smallmid Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Crm Smallmid Risk Indicators

The analysis of Crm Smallmid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Crm Smallmid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting crm mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Crm Smallmid

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Crm Smallmid position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Crm Smallmid will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Crm Mutual Fund

  0.74USG USCF Gold Strategy Symbol ChangePairCorr
  0.98CRMMX Crm Mid CapPairCorr
  0.97VIMAX Vanguard Mid-cap IndexPairCorr
  0.97VIMSX Vanguard Mid-cap IndexPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Crm Smallmid could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Crm Smallmid when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Crm Smallmid - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Crm Smallmid Cap to buy it.
The correlation of Crm Smallmid is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Crm Smallmid moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Crm Smallmid Cap moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Crm Smallmid can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crm Smallmid to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Crm Smallmid Cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Crm Smallmid's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Crm Smallmid's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Crm Smallmid is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Crm Smallmid's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.