Americas Car-Mart Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CRMT -  USA Stock  

USD 161.04  2.04  1.28%

Americas Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Americas Car-Mart historical stock prices and determine the direction of Americas Car-Mart's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Americas Car-Mart historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Americas Car-Mart naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Americas Car-Mart systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Americas Car-Mart fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Americas Car-Mart to cross-verify your projections.

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Americas Car-Mart Receivables Turnover is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Americas Car-Mart reported Receivables Turnover of 1.67 in 2020. Inventory Turnover is likely to gain to 11.16 in 2021, whereas PPandE Turnover is likely to drop 22.89 in 2021. . Americas Car-Mart Weighted Average Shares is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Americas Car-Mart reported Weighted Average Shares of 6.63 Million in 2020. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to gain to about 7.3 M in 2021, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (6.8 M) in 2021.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-08-20 Americas Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Americas Car-Mart's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Americas Car-Mart's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Americas Car-Mart stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Americas Car-Mart's open interest, investors have to compare it to Americas Car-Mart's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Americas Car-Mart is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Americas. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Americas Car-Mart cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Americas Car-Mart's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Americas Car-Mart's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Americas Car-Mart is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Americas Car-Mart value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Americas Car-Mart Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Americas Car-Mart on the next trading day is expected to be 159.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.73, mean absolute percentage error of 24.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 227.39. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Americas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Americas Car-Mart's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Americas Car-Mart Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Americas Car-MartAmericas Car-Mart Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Americas Car-Mart Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Americas Car-Mart's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Americas Car-Mart's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 156.74 and 162.36, respectively. We have considered Americas Car-Mart's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
161.04
2nd of August 2021
156.74
Downside
159.55
Expected Value
162.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Americas Car-Mart stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Americas Car-Mart stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.306
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.7276
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0249
SAESum of the absolute errors227.3853
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Americas Car-Mart. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Americas Car-Mart. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Americas Car-Mart

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Americas Car-Mart. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Americas Car-Mart's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Americas Car-Mart in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
156.35159.16161.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
150.19153.00174.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
131.90145.97160.04
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
156.00174.00194.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Americas Car-Mart. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Americas Car-Mart's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Americas Car-Mart's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Americas Car-Mart.

Other Forecasting Options for Americas Car-Mart

For every potential investor in Americas, whether a beginner or expert, Americas Car-Mart's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Americas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Americas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Americas Car-Mart's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Americas Car-Mart stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Americas Car-Mart could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Americas Car-Mart by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Americas Car-Mart Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Americas Car-Mart's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Americas Car-Mart's current price.

Americas Car-Mart Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Americas Car-Mart stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Americas Car-Mart shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Americas Car-Mart stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Americas Car-Mart entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Americas Car-Mart Risk Indicators

The analysis of Americas Car-Mart's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Americas Car-Mart's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Americas Car-Mart stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Americas Car-Mart Investors Sentiment

The influence of Americas Car-Mart's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Americas. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - CRMT

Americas Car-Mart Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Americas Car-Mart. What is your sentiment towards investing in Americas Car-Mart? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Americas Car-Mart

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Americas Car-Mart position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Americas Car-Mart will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Americas Car-Mart Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Americas Car-Mart and Kingsway Financial. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Americas Car-Mart to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Americas Car-Mart information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Americas Car-Mart's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

Complementary Tools for Americas Stock analysis

When running Americas Car-Mart price analysis, check to measure Americas Car-Mart's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Americas Car-Mart is operating at the current time. Most of Americas Car-Mart's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Americas Car-Mart's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Americas Car-Mart's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Americas Car-Mart to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Americas Car-Mart is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Americas that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Americas Car-Mart's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Americas Car-Mart's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Americas Car-Mart's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Americas Car-Mart underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Americas Car-Mart's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Americas Car-Mart value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Americas Car-Mart's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.