Americas Car Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| CRMT Stock | USD 58.72 1.87 3.29% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Americas Car Mart on the next trading day is expected to be 57.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.98. Americas Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Americas Car stock prices and determine the direction of Americas Car Mart's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Americas Car's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Americas Car's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Americas Car's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Americas Car fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Americas Car to cross-verify your projections. Americas |
Most investors in Americas Car cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Americas Car's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Americas Car's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Americas Car Mart is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Americas Car 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Americas Car Mart on the next trading day is expected to be 57.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.84, mean absolute percentage error of 5.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 104.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Americas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Americas Car's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Americas Car Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Americas Car | Americas Car Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Americas Car Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Americas Car's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Americas Car's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.21 and 60.77, respectively. We have considered Americas Car's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Americas Car stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Americas Car stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.4715 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2006 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8418 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0295 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 104.9825 |
Predictive Modules for Americas Car
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Americas Car Mart. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Americas Car's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Americas Car
For every potential investor in Americas, whether a beginner or expert, Americas Car's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Americas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Americas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Americas Car's price trends.Americas Car Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Americas Car stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Americas Car could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Americas Car by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Americas Car Mart Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Americas Car's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Americas Car's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Americas Car Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Americas Car stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Americas Car shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Americas Car stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Americas Car Mart entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1353.65 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.033149 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 58.3 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 58.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.36 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.87 |
Americas Car Risk Indicators
The analysis of Americas Car's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Americas Car's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting americas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.26 | |||
| Variance | 10.61 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Americas Car
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Americas Car position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Americas Car will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Americas Stock
| 0.62 | LE | Lands End Financial Report 6th of June 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Americas Car could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Americas Car when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Americas Car - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Americas Car Mart to buy it.
The correlation of Americas Car is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Americas Car moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Americas Car Mart moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Americas Car can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Americas Car to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Complementary Tools for Americas Stock analysis
When running Americas Car's price analysis, check to measure Americas Car's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Americas Car is operating at the current time. Most of Americas Car's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Americas Car's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Americas Car's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Americas Car to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Americas Car's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Americas Car. If investors know Americas will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Americas Car listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.70) | Earnings Share (4.67) | Revenue Per Share 221.88 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) | Return On Assets 0.0098 |
The market value of Americas Car Mart is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Americas that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Americas Car's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Americas Car's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Americas Car's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Americas Car's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Americas Car's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Americas Car is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Americas Car's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.