Catalent Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CTLT Stock  USD 60.71  0.25  0.41%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Catalent on the next trading day is expected to be 61.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.34. Catalent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Catalent's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 4.70 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 8.93 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 583.2 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 155.9 M in 2024.
Most investors in Catalent cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Catalent's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Catalent's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the accuracy of the generated results.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2012-06-30
Previous Quarter
162 M
Current Value
289 M
Quarterly Volatility
369.3 M
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Catalent is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Catalent value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Catalent Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of October 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Catalent on the next trading day is expected to be 61.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Catalent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Catalent's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Catalent Stock Forecast Pattern

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Catalent Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Catalent's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Catalent's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.68 and 61.58, respectively. We have considered Catalent's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
60.71
61.13
Expected Value
61.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Catalent stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Catalent stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9397
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2515
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0042
SAESum of the absolute errors15.3416
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Catalent. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Catalent. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Catalent

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalent. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Catalent's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
60.2760.7261.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
55.0555.5066.78
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
59.2360.2061.17
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
46.3550.9356.53
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Catalent. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Catalent's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Catalent's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Catalent.

Other Forecasting Options for Catalent

For every potential investor in Catalent, whether a beginner or expert, Catalent's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Catalent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Catalent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Catalent's price trends.

Catalent Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Catalent stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Catalent could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Catalent by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Catalent Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Catalent's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Catalent's current price.

Catalent Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Catalent stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Catalent shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Catalent stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Catalent entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Catalent Risk Indicators

The analysis of Catalent's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Catalent's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting catalent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Catalent Stock Analysis

When running Catalent's price analysis, check to measure Catalent's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Catalent is operating at the current time. Most of Catalent's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Catalent's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Catalent's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Catalent to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.