Catalent Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

CTLT Stock  USD 56.48  0.22  0.39%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Catalent on the next trading day is expected to be 60.01 with a mean absolute deviation of  2.24  and the sum of the absolute errors of 138.77. Catalent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Catalent stock prices and determine the direction of Catalent's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Catalent's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Catalent's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Catalent's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Catalent fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Catalent to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Catalent Stock please use our How to Invest in Catalent guide.
  
At this time, Catalent's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 8.80 in 2024, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 4.84 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 583.2 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 152.6 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Catalent Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Catalent's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Catalent's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Catalent stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Catalent's open interest, investors have to compare it to Catalent's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Catalent is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Catalent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Catalent cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Catalent's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Catalent's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Catalent price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Catalent Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Catalent on the next trading day is expected to be 60.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.24, mean absolute percentage error of 7.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 138.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Catalent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Catalent's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Catalent Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CatalentCatalent Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Catalent Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Catalent's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Catalent's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 57.87 and 62.15, respectively. We have considered Catalent's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
56.48
60.01
Expected Value
62.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Catalent stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Catalent stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.9185
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.2383
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0418
SAESum of the absolute errors138.7745
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Catalent historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Catalent

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalent. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Catalent's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
54.0856.2258.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
55.0557.1959.33
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
56.2056.3856.56
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
46.3550.9356.53
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Catalent. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Catalent's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Catalent's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Catalent.

Other Forecasting Options for Catalent

For every potential investor in Catalent, whether a beginner or expert, Catalent's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Catalent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Catalent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Catalent's price trends.

Catalent Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Catalent stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Catalent could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Catalent by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Catalent Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Catalent's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Catalent's current price.

Catalent Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Catalent stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Catalent shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Catalent stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Catalent entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Catalent Risk Indicators

The analysis of Catalent's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Catalent's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting catalent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Catalent

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Catalent position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Catalent will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Catalent Stock

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Moving against Catalent Stock

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  0.84CALT Calliditas Therapeutics Financial Report 21st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.69MCRB Seres Therapeutics Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.68MGTX MeiraGTx Holdings PLC Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Catalent could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Catalent when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Catalent - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Catalent to buy it.
The correlation of Catalent is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Catalent moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Catalent moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Catalent can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Catalent is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Catalent Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Catalent Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Catalent Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Catalent to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Catalent Stock please use our How to Invest in Catalent guide.
You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

Complementary Tools for Catalent Stock analysis

When running Catalent's price analysis, check to measure Catalent's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Catalent is operating at the current time. Most of Catalent's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Catalent's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Catalent's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Catalent to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Catalent's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Catalent. If investors know Catalent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Catalent listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.15)
Earnings Share
(7.18)
Revenue Per Share
22.579
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.11)
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Catalent is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Catalent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Catalent's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Catalent's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Catalent's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Catalent's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Catalent's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Catalent is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Catalent's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.