AMERICAN FUNDS Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for AMERICAN FUNDS is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of AMERICAN FUNDS COLLEGE value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

AMERICAN FUNDS Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of AMERICAN FUNDS COLLEGE on the next trading day is expected to be 11.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.032325, mean absolute percentage error of 0.001516, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.97.

AMERICAN FUNDS Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest AMERICAN FUNDS

AMERICAN FUNDS Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

AMERICAN FUNDS Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMERICAN FUNDS mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMERICAN FUNDS mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of AMERICAN FUNDS COLLEGE. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict AMERICAN FUNDS. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for AMERICAN FUNDS

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMERICAN FUNDS COLLEGE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated Value High 10.99 11.39 11.79 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real Value High 10.98 11.38 11.78 Details

Other Forecasting Options for AMERICAN FUNDS

For every potential investor in AMERICAN, whether a beginner or expert, AMERICAN FUNDS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AMERICAN Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AMERICAN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AMERICAN FUNDS's price trends.

AMERICAN FUNDS Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

AMERICAN FUNDS COLLEGE Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AMERICAN FUNDS's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AMERICAN FUNDS's current price.

AMERICAN FUNDS Risk Indicators

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in AMERICAN FUNDS without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Pair Trading with AMERICAN FUNDS

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AMERICAN FUNDS position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AMERICAN FUNDS will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Complementary Tools for AMERICAN Mutual Fund analysis

Financial Analysis Details

Buy or Sell Advice Details

Technical Analysis Details

Please note, there is a significant difference between AMERICAN FUNDS's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AMERICAN FUNDS value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AMERICAN FUNDS's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.