Calvert Emerging Mutual Fund Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

CVMAX -  USA Fund  

USD 20.40  0.05  0.24%

Calvert Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Calvert Emerging historical stock prices and determine the direction of Calvert Emerging Markets's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Calvert Emerging historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Calvert Emerging to cross-verify your projections.

Calvert Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Calvert Emerging cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Calvert Emerging's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Calvert Emerging's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Calvert Emerging is based on an artificially constructed time series of Calvert Emerging daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Calvert Emerging 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Calvert Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 20.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.21. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Calvert Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Calvert Emerging's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Calvert Emerging Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Calvert Emerging Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Calvert Emerging's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Calvert Emerging's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.00 and 21.73, respectively. We have considered Calvert Emerging's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.40
1st of December 2021
20.86
Expected Value
21.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Calvert Emerging mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Calvert Emerging mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria101.1912
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0992
MADMean absolute deviation0.268
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0127
SAESum of the absolute errors14.205
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Calvert Emerging Markets 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Calvert Emerging

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Calvert Emerging Markets. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Calvert Emerging's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Calvert Emerging in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
19.5420.4121.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
19.7720.6421.51
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
20.6221.2621.91
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Calvert Emerging. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Calvert Emerging's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Calvert Emerging's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Calvert Emerging Markets.

Other Forecasting Options for Calvert Emerging

For every potential investor in Calvert, whether a beginner or expert, Calvert Emerging's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Calvert Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Calvert. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Calvert Emerging's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Calvert Emerging mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Calvert Emerging could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Calvert Emerging by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Calvert Emerging Markets Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Calvert Emerging's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Calvert Emerging's current price.

Calvert Emerging Risk Indicators

The analysis of Calvert Emerging's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Calvert Emerging's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Calvert Emerging stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Calvert Emerging Investors Sentiment

The influence of Calvert Emerging's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Calvert. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Calvert Emerging in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Calvert Emerging's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Calvert Emerging options trading.

Current Sentiment - CVMAX

Calvert Emerging Markets Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their opinion about investing in Calvert Emerging Markets. What is your opinion about investing in Calvert Emerging Markets? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Calvert Emerging

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Calvert Emerging position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Calvert Emerging will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Calvert Emerging Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Calvert Emerging and Vanguard Emerging Mkts. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Calvert Emerging to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Calvert Emerging Markets information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Calvert Emerging's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

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When running Calvert Emerging Markets price analysis, check to measure Calvert Emerging's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Calvert Emerging is operating at the current time. Most of Calvert Emerging's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Calvert Emerging's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Calvert Emerging's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Calvert Emerging to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Calvert Emerging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Calvert Emerging value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Calvert Emerging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.