Duck Creek Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DCTDelisted Stock | USD 18.99 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Duck Creek Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 58.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 26.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,592. Duck Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Duck Creek stock prices and determine the direction of Duck Creek Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Duck Creek's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators. Duck |
Most investors in Duck Creek cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Duck Creek's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Duck Creek's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Duck Creek is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Duck Creek Technologies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Duck Creek Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Duck Creek Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 58.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 26.09, mean absolute percentage error of 7,228, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,592.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Duck Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Duck Creek's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Duck Creek Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Duck Creek | Duck Creek Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Duck Creek stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Duck Creek stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.9962 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 26.0902 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.8313 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1591.5004 |
Predictive Modules for Duck Creek
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Duck Creek Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Duck Creek's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
View Duck Creek Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Duck Creek Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Duck Creek stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Duck Creek shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Duck Creek stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Duck Creek Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Duck Creek Risk Indicators
The analysis of Duck Creek's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Duck Creek's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting duck stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 107.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 11.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 441.72 | |||
| Variance | 195114.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 396.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 131.63 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (182.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Duck Creek in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Duck Creek's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Duck Creek options trading.
Pair Trading with Duck Creek
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Duck Creek position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Duck Creek will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Duck Creek could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Duck Creek when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Duck Creek - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Duck Creek Technologies to buy it.
The correlation of Duck Creek is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Duck Creek moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Duck Creek Technologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Duck Creek can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators. Note that the Duck Creek Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Duck Creek's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Other Consideration for investing in Duck Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Duck Creek Technologies check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Duck Creek's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| Price Exposure Probability Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
| Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets | |
| Transaction History View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance |