Despegar Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

DESP Stock  USD 12.19  0.15  1.25%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Despegar Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.50 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.23  and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.49. Despegar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Despegar Corp stock prices and determine the direction of Despegar Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Despegar Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Despegar Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Despegar Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Despegar Corp fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Despegar Corp to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Despegar Stock, please use our How to Invest in Despegar Corp guide.
  
At this time, Despegar Corp's Inventory Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 0.75, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 3.09. . As of 03/28/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 77.6 M, while Net Loss is likely to drop (64.8 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Despegar Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Despegar Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Despegar Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Despegar Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Despegar Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Despegar Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Despegar Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Despegar. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Despegar Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Despegar Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Despegar Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Despegar Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Despegar Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Despegar Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Despegar Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Despegar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Despegar Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Despegar Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Despegar CorpDespegar Corp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Despegar Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Despegar Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Despegar Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.95 and 16.06, respectively. We have considered Despegar Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.19
12.50
Expected Value
16.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Despegar Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Despegar Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.391
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2336
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0246
SAESum of the absolute errors14.4855
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Despegar Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Despegar Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Despegar Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Despegar Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Despegar Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.6212.1715.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.2710.8214.37
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.8912.2312.57
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
9.4610.4011.54
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Despegar Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Despegar Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Despegar Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Despegar Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Despegar Corp

For every potential investor in Despegar, whether a beginner or expert, Despegar Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Despegar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Despegar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Despegar Corp's price trends.

Despegar Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Despegar Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Despegar Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Despegar Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Despegar Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Despegar Corp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Despegar Corp's current price.

Despegar Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Despegar Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Despegar Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Despegar Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Despegar Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Despegar Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Despegar Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Despegar Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting despegar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Despegar Corp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Despegar Corp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Despegar Corp options trading.

Pair Trading with Despegar Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Despegar Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Despegar Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Despegar Stock

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  0.68DIBS 1StdibsCom Financial Report 8th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.73AN AutoNation Financial Report 18th of April 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Despegar Stock

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  0.47MELI MercadoLibre Financial Report 1st of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Despegar Corp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Despegar Corp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Despegar Corp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Despegar Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Despegar Corp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Despegar Corp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Despegar Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Despegar Corp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Despegar Corp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Despegar Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Despegar Corp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Despegar Corp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Despegar Corp to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Despegar Stock, please use our How to Invest in Despegar Corp guide.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

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Is Despegar Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Despegar Corp. If investors know Despegar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Despegar Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.88)
Revenue Per Share
9.149
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.399
Return On Assets
0.0511
Return On Equity
0.5739
The market value of Despegar Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Despegar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Despegar Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Despegar Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Despegar Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Despegar Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Despegar Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Despegar Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Despegar Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.