Disney Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Walt Disney
DIS Stock  USD 95.83  0.93  0.98%   
Disney Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Disney historical stock prices and determine the direction of Walt Disney's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Disney historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Disney naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Walt Disney systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Disney fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Disney to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Disney Stock please use our How to Invest in Disney guide.
  
Disney Receivables Turnover is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Disney reported Receivables Turnover of 6.25 in 2022. Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to gain to 8.34 in 2023, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 21.56 in 2023. . Disney Weighted Average Shares is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Disney reported Weighted Average Shares of 1.57 Billion in 2022. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to gain to about 1.8 B in 2023, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (9.3 B) in 2023.

Open Interest Agains t 2023-03-24 Disney Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Disney's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Disney's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Disney stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Disney's open interest, investors have to compare it to Disney's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Disney is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Disney. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Disney cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Disney's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Disney's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Disney is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Walt Disney value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
More About Naive Prediction All Equity Analysis

Disney Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Walt Disney on the next trading day is expected to be 96.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23, mean absolute percentage error of 2.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.52.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Disney Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Disney's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Disney Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest DisneyDisney Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Disney Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Disney's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Disney's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 94.97 and 98.49, respectively. We have considered Disney's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 95.83
96.73
Expected Value
98.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Disney stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Disney stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.8618
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2342
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0124
SAESum of the absolute errors76.5177
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Walt Disney. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Disney. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Disney

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Walt Disney. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Disney's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Disney in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
94.1495.9197.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
86.25119.54121.31
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
90.7697.77104.78
Details
22 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
94.00128.19151.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Disney. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Disney's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Disney's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Walt Disney.

Other Forecasting Options for Disney

For every potential investor in Disney, whether a beginner or expert, Disney's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Disney Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Disney. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Disney's price trends.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Disney Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Disney stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Disney could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Disney by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Merck CompanyAmerican ExpressInternational Business3M CompanyGeneral ElectricCisco SystemsBoeingHome DepotAlcoa CorpAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOne
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Walt Disney Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Disney's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Disney's current price.
Cycle Indicators
Math Operators
Math Transform
Momentum Indicators
Overlap Studies
Pattern Recognition
Price Transform
Statistic Functions
Volatility Indicators
Volume Indicators

Disney Risk Indicators

The analysis of Disney's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Disney's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Disney stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation1.4
Semi Deviation1.65
Standard Deviation1.82
Variance3.32
Downside Variance3.23
Semi Variance2.74
Expected Short fall(1.50)
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Disney Investors Sentiment

The influence of Disney's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Disney. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Disney's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Disney. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Disney can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Walt Disney. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Disney's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Disney's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Disney's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Disney.

Disney Implied Volatility

    
  43.45  
Disney's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Walt Disney stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Disney's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Disney stock will not fluctuate a lot when Disney's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Disney in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Disney's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Disney options trading.

Pair Trading with Disney

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Disney position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Disney will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Disney

+0.9ATYAcuityAds Holdings Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2023 PairCorr

Moving against Disney

-0.45CNETZW Data Action Report 21st of April 2023 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Disney could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Disney when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Disney - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Walt Disney to buy it.
The correlation of Disney is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Disney moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Walt Disney moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Disney can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Disney to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Disney Stock please use our How to Invest in Disney guide. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Walt Disney price analysis, check to measure Disney's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Disney is operating at the current time. Most of Disney's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Disney's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Disney's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Disney to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Companies Directory
Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Is Disney's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Disney. If investors know Disney will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Disney listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.159
Earnings Share
1.85
Revenue Per Share
46.293
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.078
Return On Assets
0.0207
The market value of Walt Disney is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Disney that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Disney's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Disney's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Disney's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Disney's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Altman
Z Score
Details
Piotroski
F Score
Details
Beneish
M Score
Details
Financial
Analysis
Details
Buy or Sell
Advice
Details
Earnings
Projections
Details
Please note, there is a significant difference between Disney's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Disney value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Disney's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Macroaxis helps investors of all levels and skills to maximize the upside of all their holdings and minimize the risk associated with market volatility, economic swings, and company-specific events. View terms and conditions
 
Feedback Blog
Made with optimal in San Francisco
2023 Macroaxis LLC
COMMON DESTINATIONS
MAIN CATEGORIES
COMPANY