Dreyfus Active Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DNLCX Fund  USD 52.65  0.02  0.04%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dreyfus Active Midcap on the next trading day is expected to be 52.65 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.30  and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.24. Dreyfus Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dreyfus Active stock prices and determine the direction of Dreyfus Active Midcap's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Dreyfus Active's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dreyfus Active to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Dreyfus Active cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Dreyfus Active's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Dreyfus Active's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Dreyfus Active simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Dreyfus Active Midcap are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Dreyfus Active Midcap prices get older.

Dreyfus Active Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dreyfus Active Midcap on the next trading day is expected to be 52.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dreyfus Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dreyfus Active's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dreyfus Active Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dreyfus ActiveDreyfus Active Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Dreyfus Active Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dreyfus Active's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dreyfus Active's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.90 and 53.40, respectively. We have considered Dreyfus Active's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
52.65
52.65
Expected Value
53.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dreyfus Active mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dreyfus Active mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.1578
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0659
MADMean absolute deviation0.299
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.006
SAESum of the absolute errors18.24
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Dreyfus Active Midcap forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Dreyfus Active observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Dreyfus Active

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus Active Midcap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dreyfus Active's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.9052.6553.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
48.7249.4757.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
52.6052.6652.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dreyfus Active. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dreyfus Active's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dreyfus Active's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dreyfus Active Midcap.

Other Forecasting Options for Dreyfus Active

For every potential investor in Dreyfus, whether a beginner or expert, Dreyfus Active's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dreyfus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dreyfus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dreyfus Active's price trends.

Dreyfus Active Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dreyfus Active mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dreyfus Active could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dreyfus Active by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dreyfus Active Midcap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dreyfus Active's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dreyfus Active's current price.

Dreyfus Active Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dreyfus Active mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dreyfus Active shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dreyfus Active mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Dreyfus Active Midcap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dreyfus Active Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dreyfus Active's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dreyfus Active's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dreyfus mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Dreyfus Active

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Dreyfus Active position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Dreyfus Active will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Dreyfus Mutual Fund

  0.76USG USCF Gold Strategy Symbol ChangePairCorr
  0.69DHGCX Dreyfusstandish GlobalPairCorr
  0.67DHGAX Dreyfusstandish GlobalPairCorr
  0.84AVGCX Dynamic Total ReturnPairCorr
  0.85DHMBX Dreyfus High YieldPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Dreyfus Active could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Dreyfus Active when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Dreyfus Active - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Dreyfus Active Midcap to buy it.
The correlation of Dreyfus Active is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Dreyfus Active moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Dreyfus Active Midcap moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Dreyfus Active can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dreyfus Active to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Dreyfus Active Midcap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Dreyfus Active's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

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When running Dreyfus Active's price analysis, check to measure Dreyfus Active's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dreyfus Active is operating at the current time. Most of Dreyfus Active's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dreyfus Active's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dreyfus Active's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dreyfus Active to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Dreyfus Active's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dreyfus Active is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dreyfus Active's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.