Denali Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

DNLI Stock  USD 20.52  0.25  1.20%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Denali Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 20.14 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.64  and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.50. Denali Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Denali Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Denali Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Denali Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Denali Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Denali Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Denali Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Denali Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Denali Stock please use our How to Invest in Denali Therapeutics guide.
  
As of now, Denali Therapeutics' Receivables Turnover is increasing as compared to previous years. The Denali Therapeutics' current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 0.30, while Inventory Turnover is projected to decrease to (1.33). . The current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to decrease to about 86.7 M. The Denali Therapeutics' current Net Loss is estimated to increase to about (278.7 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Denali Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Denali Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Denali Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Denali Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Denali Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Denali Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Denali Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Denali. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Denali Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Denali Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Denali Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Denali Therapeutics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Denali Therapeutics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Denali Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Denali Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 20.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Denali Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Denali Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Denali Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Denali TherapeuticsDenali Therapeutics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Denali Therapeutics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Denali Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Denali Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.95 and 26.32, respectively. We have considered Denali Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.52
20.14
Expected Value
26.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Denali Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Denali Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.7742
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.637
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0341
SAESum of the absolute errors39.4962
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Denali Therapeutics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Denali Therapeutics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Denali Therapeutics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Denali Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Denali Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.1020.2926.48
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.4728.3634.55
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.3320.4622.58
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
50.6055.6061.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Denali Therapeutics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Denali Therapeutics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Denali Therapeutics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Denali Therapeutics.

Other Forecasting Options for Denali Therapeutics

For every potential investor in Denali, whether a beginner or expert, Denali Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Denali Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Denali. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Denali Therapeutics' price trends.

Denali Therapeutics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Denali Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Denali Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Denali Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Denali Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Denali Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Denali Therapeutics' current price.

Denali Therapeutics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Denali Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Denali Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Denali Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Denali Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Denali Therapeutics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Denali Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Denali Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting denali stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Denali Therapeutics

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Denali Therapeutics position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Denali Therapeutics will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Denali Stock

  0.54CLVRW Clever Leaves HoldingsPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Denali Therapeutics could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Denali Therapeutics when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Denali Therapeutics - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Denali Therapeutics to buy it.
The correlation of Denali Therapeutics is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Denali Therapeutics moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Denali Therapeutics moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Denali Therapeutics can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Denali Therapeutics offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Denali Therapeutics' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Denali Therapeutics Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Denali Therapeutics Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Denali Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Denali Stock please use our How to Invest in Denali Therapeutics guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

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When running Denali Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Denali Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Denali Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Denali Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Denali Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Denali Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Denali Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Denali Therapeutics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Denali Therapeutics. If investors know Denali will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Denali Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.06)
Revenue Per Share
2.406
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(1.00)
Return On Assets
(0.09)
Return On Equity
(0.14)
The market value of Denali Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Denali that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Denali Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Denali Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Denali Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Denali Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Denali Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Denali Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Denali Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.