Dreyfus Active Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Dreyfus Active - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Dreyfus Active prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Dreyfus Active price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Dreyfus Active Midcap.

Dreyfus Active Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dreyfus Active Midcap on the next trading day is expected to be 55.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.18.

Dreyfus Active Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dreyfus Active

Dreyfus Active Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Dreyfus Active Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dreyfus Active mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dreyfus Active mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Dreyfus Active observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Dreyfus Active Midcap observations.

Predictive Modules for Dreyfus Active

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus Active Midcap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 55.10 55.94 56.78 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 55.30 56.14 56.98 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dreyfus Active. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dreyfus Active's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dreyfus Active's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dreyfus Active Midcap.

Other Forecasting Options for Dreyfus Active

For every potential investor in Dreyfus, whether a beginner or expert, Dreyfus Active's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dreyfus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dreyfus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dreyfus Active's price trends.

Dreyfus Active Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Dreyfus Active Midcap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dreyfus Active's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dreyfus Active's current price.

Dreyfus Active Market Strength Events

Dreyfus Active Risk Indicators

Pair Trading with Dreyfus Active

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Dreyfus Active position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Dreyfus Active will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Financial Analysis Details

Buy or Sell Advice Details

Technical Analysis Details

Please note, there is a significant difference between Dreyfus Active's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dreyfus Active is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dreyfus Active's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.