BNY Mellon Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

DNLYX -  USA Fund  

USD 70.00  0.12  0.17%

DNLYX Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast BNY Mellon historical stock prices and determine the direction of BNY Mellon Active's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of BNY Mellon historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BNY Mellon to cross-verify your projections.

DNLYX Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
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Most investors in BNY Mellon cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the BNY Mellon's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets BNY Mellon's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for BNY Mellon - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When BNY Mellon prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in BNY Mellon price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of BNY Mellon Active.

BNY Mellon Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BNY Mellon Active on the next trading day is expected to be 70.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.04. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DNLYX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BNY Mellon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BNY Mellon Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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BNY Mellon Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BNY Mellon's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BNY Mellon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 69.31 and 70.80, respectively. We have considered BNY Mellon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
70.00
26th of October 2021
70.06
Expected Value
70.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BNY Mellon mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BNY Mellon mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0835
MADMean absolute deviation0.4074
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.006
SAESum of the absolute errors24.0373
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past BNY Mellon observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older BNY Mellon Active observations.

Predictive Modules for BNY Mellon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BNY Mellon Active. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of BNY Mellon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of BNY Mellon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
69.2670.0070.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
63.0074.3275.06
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
65.4367.7670.08
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BNY Mellon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BNY Mellon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BNY Mellon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in BNY Mellon Active.

Other Forecasting Options for BNY Mellon

For every potential investor in DNLYX, whether a beginner or expert, BNY Mellon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DNLYX Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DNLYX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BNY Mellon's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BNY Mellon mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BNY Mellon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BNY Mellon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

BNY Mellon Active Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BNY Mellon's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BNY Mellon's current price.

BNY Mellon Risk Indicators

The analysis of BNY Mellon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BNY Mellon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting BNY Mellon stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

BNY Mellon Investors Sentiment

The influence of BNY Mellon's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in DNLYX. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - DNLYX

BNY Mellon Active Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are insensible in their opinion about investing in BNY Mellon Active. What is your opinion about investing in BNY Mellon Active? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Pair Trading with BNY Mellon

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BNY Mellon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BNY Mellon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

BNY Mellon Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BNY Mellon and Vanguard Mid-Cap Index. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of BNY Mellon to cross-verify your projections. Note that the BNY Mellon Active information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BNY Mellon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

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When running BNY Mellon Active price analysis, check to measure BNY Mellon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BNY Mellon is operating at the current time. Most of BNY Mellon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BNY Mellon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BNY Mellon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BNY Mellon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between BNY Mellon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine BNY Mellon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BNY Mellon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.