Dunham Monthly Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

DNMDX -  USA Fund  

USD 32.18  0.02  0.06%

Dunham Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dunham Monthly historical stock prices and determine the direction of Dunham Monthly Distribution's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Dunham Monthly historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dunham Monthly to cross-verify your projections.

Dunham Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Dunham Monthly cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Dunham Monthly's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Dunham Monthly's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Dunham Monthly is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Dunham Monthly Distribution value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Dunham Monthly Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dunham Monthly Distribution on the next trading day is expected to be 32.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.027716, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00119, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.47. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dunham Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dunham Monthly's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dunham Monthly Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Dunham Monthly Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dunham Monthly's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dunham Monthly's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.96 and 32.29, respectively. We have considered Dunham Monthly's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
32.18
22nd of October 2021
32.13
Expected Value
32.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dunham Monthly mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dunham Monthly mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria30.5103
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0277
MAPEMean absolute percentage error9.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors0.4712
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Dunham Monthly Distribution. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Dunham Monthly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Dunham Monthly

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dunham Monthly Distr. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dunham Monthly's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Dunham Monthly in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
31.8332.2032.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31.7932.1632.53
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
32.2432.3732.51
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dunham Monthly. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dunham Monthly's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dunham Monthly's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Dunham Monthly Distr.

Other Forecasting Options for Dunham Monthly

For every potential investor in Dunham, whether a beginner or expert, Dunham Monthly's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dunham Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dunham. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dunham Monthly's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dunham Monthly mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dunham Monthly could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dunham Monthly by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Dunham Monthly Distr Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dunham Monthly's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dunham Monthly's current price.

Dunham Monthly Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dunham Monthly mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dunham Monthly shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dunham Monthly mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Dunham Monthly Distribution entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dunham Monthly Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dunham Monthly's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dunham Monthly's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Dunham Monthly stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Dunham Monthly Investors Sentiment

The influence of Dunham Monthly's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Dunham. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - DNMDX

Dunham Monthly Distr Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Dunham Monthly Distribution. What is your opinion about investing in Dunham Monthly Distribution? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Dunham Monthly

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Dunham Monthly position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Dunham Monthly will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Dunham Monthly Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Dunham Monthly and Blackrock Large Cap. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dunham Monthly to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Dunham Monthly Distr information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Dunham Monthly's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

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When running Dunham Monthly Distr price analysis, check to measure Dunham Monthly's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dunham Monthly is operating at the current time. Most of Dunham Monthly's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dunham Monthly's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dunham Monthly's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dunham Monthly to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Dunham Monthly's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Dunham Monthly value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dunham Monthly's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.