Dreyfus High Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Moving Average

DPLTX Fund  USD 5.33  0.01  0.19%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Dreyfus High Yield on the next trading day is expected to be 5.33 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.01  and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.49. Dreyfus Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dreyfus High stock prices and determine the direction of Dreyfus High Yield's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Dreyfus High's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dreyfus High to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Dreyfus High cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Dreyfus High's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Dreyfus High's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Dreyfus High is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Dreyfus High Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Dreyfus High Yield on the next trading day is expected to be 5.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dreyfus Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dreyfus High's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dreyfus High Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dreyfus HighDreyfus High Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Dreyfus High Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dreyfus High's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dreyfus High's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.13 and 5.53, respectively. We have considered Dreyfus High's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.33
5.33
Expected Value
5.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dreyfus High mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dreyfus High mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria105.471
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0019
MADMean absolute deviation0.0083
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0016
SAESum of the absolute errors0.49
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Dreyfus High Yield price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Dreyfus High. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Dreyfus High

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus High Yield. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dreyfus High's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.135.335.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.015.215.41
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dreyfus High. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dreyfus High's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dreyfus High's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dreyfus High Yield.

Other Forecasting Options for Dreyfus High

For every potential investor in Dreyfus, whether a beginner or expert, Dreyfus High's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dreyfus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dreyfus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dreyfus High's price trends.

Dreyfus High Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dreyfus High mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dreyfus High could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dreyfus High by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dreyfus High Yield Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dreyfus High's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dreyfus High's current price.

Dreyfus High Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dreyfus High mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dreyfus High shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dreyfus High mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Dreyfus High Yield entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dreyfus High Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dreyfus High's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dreyfus High's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dreyfus mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Dreyfus High

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Dreyfus High position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Dreyfus High will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Dreyfus Mutual Fund

  0.77USG USCF Gold Strategy Symbol ChangePairCorr
  0.77DHGCX Dreyfusstandish GlobalPairCorr
  0.8DHGAX Dreyfusstandish GlobalPairCorr
  0.81AVGCX Dynamic Total ReturnPairCorr
  0.87DHMBX Dreyfus High YieldPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Dreyfus High could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Dreyfus High when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Dreyfus High - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Dreyfus High Yield to buy it.
The correlation of Dreyfus High is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Dreyfus High moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Dreyfus High Yield moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Dreyfus High can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dreyfus High to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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When running Dreyfus High's price analysis, check to measure Dreyfus High's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dreyfus High is operating at the current time. Most of Dreyfus High's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dreyfus High's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dreyfus High's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dreyfus High to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Dreyfus High's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dreyfus High is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dreyfus High's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.