Darden Restaurants Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

DRI
 Stock
  

USD 126.32  3.00  2.32%   

Darden Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Darden Restaurants historical stock prices and determine the direction of Darden Restaurants's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Darden Restaurants historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Darden Restaurants to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-10-21 Darden Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Darden Restaurants' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Darden Restaurants' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Darden Restaurants stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Darden Restaurants' open interest, investors have to compare it to Darden Restaurants' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Darden Restaurants is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Darden. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Darden Restaurants cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Darden Restaurants' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Darden Restaurants' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Darden Restaurants polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Darden Restaurants as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Darden Restaurants Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Darden Restaurants on the next trading day is expected to be 125.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.45, mean absolute percentage error of 9.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 151.94.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Darden Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Darden Restaurants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Darden Restaurants Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Darden RestaurantsDarden Restaurants Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Darden Restaurants Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Darden Restaurants' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Darden Restaurants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 123.80 and 127.74, respectively. We have considered Darden Restaurants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 126.32
123.80
Downside
125.77
Expected Value
127.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Darden Restaurants stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Darden Restaurants stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.1986
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.4506
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0194
SAESum of the absolute errors151.9365
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Darden Restaurants historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Darden Restaurants

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Darden Restaurants. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Darden Restaurants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Darden Restaurants in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
124.12126.07128.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
113.69156.82158.77
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
147.00165.60185.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Darden Restaurants. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Darden Restaurants' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Darden Restaurants' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Darden Restaurants.

Other Forecasting Options for Darden Restaurants

For every potential investor in Darden, whether a beginner or expert, Darden Restaurants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Darden Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Darden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Darden Restaurants' price trends.

Darden Restaurants Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Darden Restaurants stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Darden Restaurants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Darden Restaurants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amazon IncAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone IncCVS CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational BusinessIntel CorpMetlifeATT IncTarget Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Darden Restaurants Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Darden Restaurants' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Darden Restaurants' current price.

Darden Restaurants Risk Indicators

The analysis of Darden Restaurants' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Darden Restaurants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Darden Restaurants stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Darden Restaurants in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Darden Restaurants' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Darden Restaurants options trading.

Pair Trading with Darden Restaurants

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Darden Restaurants position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Darden Restaurants will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Darden Restaurants

+0.95SBUXStarbucks Corp Fiscal Year End 27th of October 2022 PairCorr
+0.81DISWalt Disney Fiscal Year End 9th of November 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Darden Restaurants could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Darden Restaurants when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Darden Restaurants - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Darden Restaurants to buy it.
The correlation of Darden Restaurants is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Darden Restaurants moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Darden Restaurants moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Darden Restaurants can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Darden Restaurants to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Darden Restaurants price analysis, check to measure Darden Restaurants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Darden Restaurants is operating at the current time. Most of Darden Restaurants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Darden Restaurants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Darden Restaurants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Darden Restaurants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Darden Restaurants' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Darden Restaurants. If investors know Darden will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Darden Restaurants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Darden Restaurants is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Darden that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Darden Restaurants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Darden Restaurants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Darden Restaurants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Darden Restaurants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Darden Restaurants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Darden Restaurants value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Darden Restaurants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.