Diana Shipping Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

DSX Stock  USD 2.89  0.01  0.35%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Diana Shipping on the next trading day is expected to be 2.80 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.04  and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.53. Diana Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Diana Shipping stock prices and determine the direction of Diana Shipping's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Diana Shipping's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Diana Shipping's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Diana Shipping's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Diana Shipping fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Diana Shipping to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Diana Stock please use our How to Invest in Diana Shipping guide.
  
Payables Turnover is likely to rise to 11.66 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 19.49 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 107.1 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 75.7 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Diana Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Diana Shipping's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Diana Shipping's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Diana Shipping stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Diana Shipping's open interest, investors have to compare it to Diana Shipping's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Diana Shipping is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Diana. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Diana Shipping cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Diana Shipping's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Diana Shipping's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Diana Shipping is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Diana Shipping value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Diana Shipping Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Diana Shipping on the next trading day is expected to be 2.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Diana Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Diana Shipping's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Diana Shipping Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Diana ShippingDiana Shipping Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Diana Shipping Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Diana Shipping's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Diana Shipping's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.17 and 4.44, respectively. We have considered Diana Shipping's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.89
2.80
Expected Value
4.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Diana Shipping stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Diana Shipping stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.9188
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0408
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0139
SAESum of the absolute errors2.5268
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Diana Shipping. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Diana Shipping. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Diana Shipping

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Diana Shipping. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Diana Shipping's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.272.894.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.783.405.02
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.533.884.31
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Diana Shipping. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Diana Shipping's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Diana Shipping's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Diana Shipping.

Other Forecasting Options for Diana Shipping

For every potential investor in Diana, whether a beginner or expert, Diana Shipping's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Diana Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Diana. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Diana Shipping's price trends.

Diana Shipping Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Diana Shipping stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Diana Shipping could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Diana Shipping by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Diana Shipping Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Diana Shipping's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Diana Shipping's current price.

Diana Shipping Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Diana Shipping stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Diana Shipping shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Diana Shipping stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Diana Shipping entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Diana Shipping Risk Indicators

The analysis of Diana Shipping's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Diana Shipping's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting diana stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Diana Shipping in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Diana Shipping's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Diana Shipping options trading.

Pair Trading with Diana Shipping

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Diana Shipping position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Diana Shipping will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Diana Shipping could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Diana Shipping when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Diana Shipping - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Diana Shipping to buy it.
The correlation of Diana Shipping is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Diana Shipping moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Diana Shipping moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Diana Shipping can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Diana Shipping offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Diana Shipping's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Diana Shipping Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Diana Shipping Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Diana Shipping to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Diana Stock please use our How to Invest in Diana Shipping guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Diana Stock analysis

When running Diana Shipping's price analysis, check to measure Diana Shipping's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Diana Shipping is operating at the current time. Most of Diana Shipping's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Diana Shipping's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Diana Shipping's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Diana Shipping to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Diana Shipping's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Diana Shipping. If investors know Diana will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Diana Shipping listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.78)
Dividend Share
0.525
Earnings Share
0.62
Revenue Per Share
2.617
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.21)
The market value of Diana Shipping is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Diana that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Diana Shipping's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Diana Shipping's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Diana Shipping's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Diana Shipping's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Diana Shipping's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Diana Shipping is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Diana Shipping's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.