Deutsche Telekom Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DTEADelisted Stock  USD 0.42  0.00  0.00%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Deutsche Telekom AG on the next trading day is expected to be 0.42 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.02  and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.49. Deutsche Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Deutsche Telekom stock prices and determine the direction of Deutsche Telekom AG's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Deutsche Telekom's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in income.
  
Most investors in Deutsche Telekom cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Deutsche Telekom's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Deutsche Telekom's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Deutsche Telekom simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Deutsche Telekom AG are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Deutsche Telekom prices get older.

Deutsche Telekom Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Deutsche Telekom AG on the next trading day is expected to be 0.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Deutsche Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Deutsche Telekom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Deutsche Telekom Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Deutsche Telekom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Deutsche Telekom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.4674
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0017
MADMean absolute deviation0.0249
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.053
SAESum of the absolute errors1.494
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Deutsche Telekom AG forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Deutsche Telekom observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Deutsche Telekom

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deutsche Telekom. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Deutsche Telekom's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.420.420.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.390.390.46
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Deutsche Telekom. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Deutsche Telekom's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Deutsche Telekom's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Deutsche Telekom.

Deutsche Telekom Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Deutsche Telekom stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Deutsche Telekom could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Deutsche Telekom by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Deutsche Telekom Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Deutsche Telekom stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Deutsche Telekom shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Deutsche Telekom stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Deutsche Telekom AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Deutsche Telekom Risk Indicators

The analysis of Deutsche Telekom's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Deutsche Telekom's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting deutsche stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Deutsche Telekom in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Deutsche Telekom's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Deutsche Telekom options trading.

Pair Trading with Deutsche Telekom

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Deutsche Telekom position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Deutsche Telekom will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Deutsche Stock

  0.64BBZA BB Biotech AGPairCorr
  0.6BBZA BB Biotech AGPairCorr
  0.55DBPE Xtrackers - LevDAXPairCorr
  0.44E908 Lyxor 1 -PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Deutsche Telekom could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Deutsche Telekom when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Deutsche Telekom - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Deutsche Telekom AG to buy it.
The correlation of Deutsche Telekom is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Deutsche Telekom moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Deutsche Telekom moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Deutsche Telekom can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in income.
Note that the Deutsche Telekom information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Deutsche Telekom's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.

Other Consideration for investing in Deutsche Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Deutsche Telekom check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Deutsche Telekom's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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