Dynavax Technologies Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

DVAX Stock  USD 12.41  0.04  0.32%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Dynavax Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 12.33 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.31  and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.53. Dynavax Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dynavax Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Dynavax Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Dynavax Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Dynavax Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Dynavax Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Dynavax Technologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dynavax Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Dynavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Dynavax Technologies guide.
  
At this time, Dynavax Technologies' Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to rise to 10.55 in 2024, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 2.30 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 135.2 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 353.6 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Dynavax Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Dynavax Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Dynavax Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Dynavax Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Dynavax Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Dynavax Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Dynavax Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Dynavax. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Dynavax Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Dynavax Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Dynavax Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Dynavax Technologies is based on an artificially constructed time series of Dynavax Technologies daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Dynavax Technologies 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Dynavax Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 12.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dynavax Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dynavax Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dynavax Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dynavax TechnologiesDynavax Technologies Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Dynavax Technologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dynavax Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dynavax Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.59 and 14.07, respectively. We have considered Dynavax Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.41
12.33
Expected Value
14.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dynavax Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dynavax Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria103.3738
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1446
MADMean absolute deviation0.3062
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0241
SAESum of the absolute errors16.5337
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Dynavax Technologies 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Dynavax Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dynavax Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dynavax Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.6512.4214.19
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.1715.5517.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.7412.5113.29
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
22.3024.5027.20
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dynavax Technologies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dynavax Technologies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dynavax Technologies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dynavax Technologies.

Other Forecasting Options for Dynavax Technologies

For every potential investor in Dynavax, whether a beginner or expert, Dynavax Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dynavax Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dynavax. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dynavax Technologies' price trends.

Dynavax Technologies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dynavax Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dynavax Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dynavax Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dynavax Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dynavax Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dynavax Technologies' current price.

Dynavax Technologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dynavax Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dynavax Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dynavax Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dynavax Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dynavax Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dynavax Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dynavax Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dynavax stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Dynavax Technologies Investors Sentiment

The influence of Dynavax Technologies' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Dynavax. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Dynavax Technologies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Dynavax. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Dynavax can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Dynavax Technologies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Dynavax Technologies' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Dynavax Technologies' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Dynavax Technologies' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Dynavax Technologies.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Dynavax Technologies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Dynavax Technologies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Dynavax Technologies options trading.

Pair Trading with Dynavax Technologies

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Dynavax Technologies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Dynavax Technologies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Dynavax Stock

  0.66MBRX Moleculin Biotech Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.83MCRB Seres Therapeutics Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Dynavax Stock

  0.8EQ Equillium Financial Report 9th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.77MGNX MacroGenics Financial Report 14th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.63MDWD Mediwound Downward RallyPairCorr
  0.53CLVRW Clever Leaves HoldingsPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Dynavax Technologies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Dynavax Technologies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Dynavax Technologies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Dynavax Technologies to buy it.
The correlation of Dynavax Technologies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Dynavax Technologies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Dynavax Technologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Dynavax Technologies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Dynavax Technologies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Dynavax Technologies' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Dynavax Technologies Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Dynavax Technologies Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dynavax Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Dynavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Dynavax Technologies guide.
Note that the Dynavax Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Dynavax Technologies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

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Is Dynavax Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dynavax Technologies. If investors know Dynavax will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dynavax Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.77)
Earnings Share
(0.05)
Revenue Per Share
1.804
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.70)
Return On Assets
(0.02)
The market value of Dynavax Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dynavax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dynavax Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dynavax Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dynavax Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dynavax Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dynavax Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dynavax Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dynavax Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.