Eni SPA Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

E Stock  USD 31.47  0.16  0.51%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eni SpA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 31.47 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.29  and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.84. Eni Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Eni SPA stock prices and determine the direction of Eni SpA ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Eni SPA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Eni SPA's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Eni SPA's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Eni SPA fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eni SPA to cross-verify your projections.
  
At present, Eni SPA's Fixed Asset Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.81, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 10.02. . The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 13.1 B, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 2.1 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Eni Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Eni SPA's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Eni SPA's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Eni SPA stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Eni SPA's open interest, investors have to compare it to Eni SPA's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Eni SPA is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Eni. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Eni SPA cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Eni SPA's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Eni SPA's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Eni SPA simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Eni SpA ADR are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Eni SpA ADR prices get older.

Eni SPA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eni SpA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 31.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.84.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eni Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eni SPA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eni SPA Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Eni SPAEni SPA Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Eni SPA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eni SPA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eni SPA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.26 and 32.68, respectively. We have considered Eni SPA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
31.47
31.47
Expected Value
32.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eni SPA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eni SPA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.161
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0325
MADMean absolute deviation0.2925
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0094
SAESum of the absolute errors17.84
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Eni SpA ADR forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Eni SPA observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Eni SPA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eni SpA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eni SPA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
30.2131.4232.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.3234.5535.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
31.2631.4231.58
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
34.1337.5041.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Eni SPA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Eni SPA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Eni SPA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Eni SpA ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Eni SPA

For every potential investor in Eni, whether a beginner or expert, Eni SPA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eni Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eni. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eni SPA's price trends.

Eni SPA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eni SPA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eni SPA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eni SPA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Eni SpA ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eni SPA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eni SPA's current price.

Eni SPA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eni SPA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eni SPA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eni SPA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eni SpA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Eni SPA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eni SPA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eni SPA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eni stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Eni SPA

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Eni SPA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Eni SPA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Eni Stock

  0.87EQNR Equinor ASA ADR Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Eni Stock

  0.71NS NuStar Energy LP Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.43ET Energy Transfer LP Financial Report 7th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Eni SPA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Eni SPA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Eni SPA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Eni SpA ADR to buy it.
The correlation of Eni SPA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Eni SPA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Eni SpA ADR moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Eni SPA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Eni SpA ADR is a strong investment it is important to analyze Eni SPA's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Eni SPA's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Eni Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eni SPA to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Eni SpA ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Eni SPA's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

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When running Eni SPA's price analysis, check to measure Eni SPA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Eni SPA is operating at the current time. Most of Eni SPA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Eni SPA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Eni SPA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Eni SPA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Eni SPA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Eni SPA. If investors know Eni will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Eni SPA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.70)
Dividend Share
0.94
Earnings Share
3.04
Revenue Per Share
57.43
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.21)
The market value of Eni SpA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Eni that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Eni SPA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Eni SPA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Eni SPA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Eni SPA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Eni SPA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Eni SPA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Eni SPA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.