Ellington Residential Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

EARN Stock  USD 7.06  0.08  1.12%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ellington Residential Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 7.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.68. Ellington Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Ellington Residential's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ellington Residential's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ellington Residential fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 19th of July 2024, Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 0.03. In addition to that, Receivables Turnover is likely to drop to 0.18. As of the 19th of July 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 11.5 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (25.8 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-07-19 Ellington Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ellington Residential's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ellington Residential's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ellington Residential stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ellington Residential's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ellington Residential's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ellington Residential is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ellington. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Ellington Residential cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ellington Residential's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ellington Residential's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the accuracy of the generated results. A two period moving average forecast for Ellington Residential is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Ellington Residential Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ellington Residential Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 7.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ellington Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ellington Residential's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ellington Residential Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ellington ResidentialEllington Residential Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ellington Residential Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ellington Residential's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ellington Residential's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.96 and 8.16, respectively. We have considered Ellington Residential's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.06
7.06
Expected Value
8.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ellington Residential stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ellington Residential stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.3666
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0141
MADMean absolute deviation0.0624
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.009
SAESum of the absolute errors3.68
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Ellington Residential Mortgage price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Ellington Residential. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Ellington Residential

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ellington Residential. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ellington Residential's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.967.068.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.358.179.27
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
8.319.1310.13
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.240.280.35
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Ellington Residential

For every potential investor in Ellington, whether a beginner or expert, Ellington Residential's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ellington Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ellington. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ellington Residential's price trends.

Ellington Residential Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ellington Residential stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ellington Residential could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ellington Residential by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ellington Residential Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ellington Residential's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ellington Residential's current price.

Ellington Residential Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ellington Residential stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ellington Residential shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ellington Residential stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ellington Residential Mortgage entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ellington Residential Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ellington Residential's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ellington Residential's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ellington stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Ellington Residential

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ellington Residential position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ellington Residential will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Ellington Stock

  0.73BK Bank of New York Fiscal Year End 10th of January 2025 PairCorr

Moving against Ellington Stock

  0.39MA MastercardPairCorr
  0.37CG Carlyle GroupPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ellington Residential could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ellington Residential when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ellington Residential - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ellington Residential Mortgage to buy it.
The correlation of Ellington Residential is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ellington Residential moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ellington Residential moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ellington Residential can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Ellington Stock

When determining whether Ellington Residential offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ellington Residential's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ellington Residential Mortgage Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ellington Residential Mortgage Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ellington Residential to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ellington Residential. If investors know Ellington will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ellington Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.185
Dividend Share
0.96
Earnings Share
0.34
Revenue Per Share
1.532
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.83)
The market value of Ellington Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ellington that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ellington Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ellington Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ellington Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ellington Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ellington Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ellington Residential is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ellington Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.