Eastside Distilling Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

EAST -  USA Stock  

USD 2.72  0.15  5.84%

Eastside Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Eastside Distilling historical stock prices and determine the direction of Eastside Distilling's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Eastside Distilling historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Eastside Distilling naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Eastside Distilling systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Eastside Distilling fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eastside Distilling to cross-verify your projections.

Eastside Stock Forecast 

 
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Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.42 in 2021. Weighted Average Shares is likely to gain to about 10.8 M in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to gain to about 10.8 M in 2021.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-11-19 Eastside Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Eastside Distilling's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Eastside Distilling's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Eastside Distilling stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Eastside Distilling's open interest, investors have to compare it to Eastside Distilling's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Eastside Distilling is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Eastside. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Eastside Distilling cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Eastside Distilling's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Eastside Distilling's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Eastside Distilling is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Eastside Distilling value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Eastside Distilling Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of October 2021

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Eastside Distilling on the next trading day is expected to be 3.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.013936, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.90. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eastside Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eastside Distilling's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eastside Distilling Stock Forecast Pattern

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Eastside Distilling Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eastside Distilling's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eastside Distilling's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0272 and 8.14, respectively. We have considered Eastside Distilling's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.72
17th of October 2021
0.0272
Downside
3.01
Expected Value
8.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eastside Distilling stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eastside Distilling stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.8372
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0967
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.031
SAESum of the absolute errors5.8995
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Eastside Distilling. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Eastside Distilling. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Eastside Distilling

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eastside Distilling. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eastside Distilling's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Eastside Distilling in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.142.727.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.173.498.46
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
6.006.006.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Eastside Distilling. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Eastside Distilling's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Eastside Distilling's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Eastside Distilling.

Other Forecasting Options for Eastside Distilling

For every potential investor in Eastside, whether a beginner or expert, Eastside Distilling's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eastside Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eastside. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eastside Distilling's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eastside Distilling stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eastside Distilling could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eastside Distilling by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Eastside Distilling Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eastside Distilling's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eastside Distilling's current price.

Eastside Distilling Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eastside Distilling stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eastside Distilling shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eastside Distilling stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eastside Distilling entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Eastside Distilling Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eastside Distilling's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eastside Distilling's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Eastside Distilling stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Eastside Distilling Investors Sentiment

The influence of Eastside Distilling's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Eastside. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - EAST

Eastside Distilling Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are insensible in their opinion about investing in Eastside Distilling. What is your opinion about investing in Eastside Distilling? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Eastside Distilling

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Eastside Distilling position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Eastside Distilling will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Eastside Distilling Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eastside Distilling to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Eastside Distilling information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Eastside Distilling's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

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When running Eastside Distilling price analysis, check to measure Eastside Distilling's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Eastside Distilling is operating at the current time. Most of Eastside Distilling's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Eastside Distilling's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Eastside Distilling's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Eastside Distilling to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Eastside Distilling is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Eastside that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Eastside Distilling's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Eastside Distilling's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Eastside Distilling's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Eastside Distilling underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Eastside Distilling's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Eastside Distilling value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Eastside Distilling's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.