Ebix Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

EBIX Stock  USD 1.08  0.02  1.82%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ebix Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.08 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.28  and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.74. Ebix Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ebix stock prices and determine the direction of Ebix Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ebix's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Ebix's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ebix's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ebix fundamentals over time.
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product.
  
At this time, Ebix's Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to rise to 8.77 in 2024, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 10.37 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 22.5 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 55.3 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Ebix Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ebix's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ebix's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ebix stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ebix's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ebix's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ebix is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ebix. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Ebix cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ebix's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ebix's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Ebix simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Ebix Inc are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Ebix Inc prices get older.

Ebix Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ebix Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.74.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ebix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ebix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ebix Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest EbixEbix Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ebix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ebix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.0502
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.054
MADMean absolute deviation0.279
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1404
SAESum of the absolute errors16.74
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Ebix Inc forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Ebix observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Ebix

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ebix Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ebix's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.050.9021.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.326.3626.80
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
20.2522.2524.70
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.14-0.060.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ebix. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ebix's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ebix's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ebix Inc.

Ebix Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ebix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ebix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ebix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ebix Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ebix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ebix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ebix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ebix Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ebix Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ebix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ebix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ebix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Ebix

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ebix position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ebix will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Ebix Stock

  0.72U Unity Software Financial Report 8th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ebix could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ebix when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ebix - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ebix Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Ebix is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ebix moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ebix Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ebix can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product.
You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Complementary Tools for Ebix Stock analysis

When running Ebix's price analysis, check to measure Ebix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ebix is operating at the current time. Most of Ebix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ebix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ebix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ebix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ebix's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ebix. If investors know Ebix will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ebix listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.98)
Earnings Share
0.16
Revenue Per Share
23.851
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.54)
Return On Assets
0.0448
The market value of Ebix Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ebix that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ebix's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ebix's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ebix's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ebix's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ebix's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ebix is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ebix's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.