Eagle Bancorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

EBMT -  USA Stock  

USD 22.25  0.05  0.22%

Eagle Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Eagle Bancorp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Eagle Bancorp Mt's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Eagle Bancorp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Eagle Bancorp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Eagle Bancorp Mt systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Eagle Bancorp fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eagle Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.

Eagle Stock Forecast 

 
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Asset Turnover is likely to drop to 0.07 in 2021. Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 6.3 M in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 3.6 M in 2021.
Most investors in Eagle Bancorp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Eagle Bancorp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Eagle Bancorp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Eagle Bancorp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Eagle Bancorp Mt value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Eagle Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Eagle Bancorp Mt on the next trading day is expected to be 21.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.024227, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.44. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eagle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eagle Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eagle Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Eagle Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eagle Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eagle Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.06 and 22.91, respectively. We have considered Eagle Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22.25
25th of October 2021
21.99
Expected Value
22.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eagle Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eagle Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3902
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.122
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0055
SAESum of the absolute errors7.4444
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Eagle Bancorp Mt. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Eagle Bancorp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Eagle Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eagle Bancorp Mt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eagle Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Eagle Bancorp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
21.3222.2523.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
20.0325.0926.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
21.8722.2322.60
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
27.0028.0029.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Eagle Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Eagle Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Eagle Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Eagle Bancorp Mt.

Other Forecasting Options for Eagle Bancorp

For every potential investor in Eagle, whether a beginner or expert, Eagle Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eagle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eagle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eagle Bancorp's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eagle Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eagle Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eagle Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Eagle Bancorp Mt Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eagle Bancorp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eagle Bancorp's current price.

Eagle Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eagle Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eagle Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Eagle Bancorp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Eagle Bancorp Investors Sentiment

The influence of Eagle Bancorp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Eagle. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - EBMT

Eagle Bancorp Mt Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Eagle Bancorp Mt. What is your opinion about investing in Eagle Bancorp Mt? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Eagle Bancorp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Eagle Bancorp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Eagle Bancorp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Eagle Bancorp Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Eagle Bancorp and Banco Bradesco Sa. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eagle Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Eagle Bancorp Mt information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Eagle Bancorp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

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Is Eagle Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Eagle Bancorp. If investors know Eagle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Eagle Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Eagle Bancorp Mt is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Eagle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Eagle Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Eagle Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Eagle Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Eagle Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Eagle Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Eagle Bancorp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Eagle Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.