Electrocore Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ECOR -  USA Stock  

USD 0.99  0.01  1.02%

Electrocore Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Electrocore historical stock prices and determine the direction of Electrocore's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Electrocore historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Electrocore naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Electrocore systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Electrocore fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electrocore to cross-verify your projections.

Electrocore Stock Forecast 

 
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As of 10/19/2021, Asset Turnover is likely to drop to 0.09. As of 10/19/2021, Weighted Average Shares is likely to grow to about 40 M. Also, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 40 M.
Most investors in Electrocore cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Electrocore's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Electrocore's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Electrocore is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Electrocore value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Electrocore Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Electrocore on the next trading day is expected to be 0.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.038023, mean absolute percentage error of 0.002083, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.32. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Electrocore Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Electrocore's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Electrocore Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ElectrocoreElectrocore Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Electrocore Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Electrocore's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Electrocore's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0099 and 4.28, respectively. We have considered Electrocore's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.99
19th of October 2021
0.0099
Downside
0.94
Expected Value
4.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Electrocore stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Electrocore stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.9365
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.038
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0375
SAESum of the absolute errors2.3194
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Electrocore. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Electrocore. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Electrocore

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Electrocore. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Electrocore's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Electrocore in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.051.004.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.081.564.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.991.051.17
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
3.003.444.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Electrocore. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Electrocore's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Electrocore's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Electrocore.

Other Forecasting Options for Electrocore

For every potential investor in Electrocore, whether a beginner or expert, Electrocore's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Electrocore Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Electrocore. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Electrocore's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Electrocore stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Electrocore could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Electrocore by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Electrocore Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Electrocore's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Electrocore's current price.

Electrocore Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Electrocore stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Electrocore shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Electrocore stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Electrocore entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Electrocore Risk Indicators

The analysis of Electrocore's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Electrocore's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Electrocore stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Electrocore Investors Sentiment

The influence of Electrocore's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Electrocore. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - ECOR

Electrocore Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Electrocore. What is your opinion about investing in Electrocore? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Electrocore

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Electrocore position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Electrocore will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Electrocore Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Electrocore and Alcon Inc. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electrocore to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Electrocore information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Electrocore's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Commodity Channel Index module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

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When running Electrocore price analysis, check to measure Electrocore's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Electrocore is operating at the current time. Most of Electrocore's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Electrocore's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Electrocore's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Electrocore to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Electrocore is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Electrocore that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Electrocore's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Electrocore's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Electrocore's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Electrocore underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Electrocore's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Electrocore value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Electrocore's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.