EuroDry Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

EDRY Stock  USD 20.75  0.76  3.53%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of EuroDry on the next trading day is expected to be 20.07 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.31  and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.21. EuroDry Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast EuroDry stock prices and determine the direction of EuroDry's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of EuroDry's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although EuroDry's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of EuroDry's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of EuroDry fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EuroDry to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy EuroDry Stock please use our How to Invest in EuroDry guide.
  
At this time, EuroDry's Payables Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 7.98 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 9.06 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 40.5 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 2.6 M in 2024.
Most investors in EuroDry cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the EuroDry's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets EuroDry's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for EuroDry is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of EuroDry value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

EuroDry Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of EuroDry on the next trading day is expected to be 20.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EuroDry Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EuroDry's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

EuroDry Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest EuroDryEuroDry Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

EuroDry Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting EuroDry's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EuroDry's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.08 and 22.06, respectively. We have considered EuroDry's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.75
20.07
Expected Value
22.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EuroDry stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EuroDry stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.9852
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3098
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0145
SAESum of the absolute errors19.2082
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of EuroDry. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict EuroDry. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for EuroDry

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EuroDry. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of EuroDry's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.7920.7822.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.6822.8224.81
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
20.3921.4222.45
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
21.3923.5026.09
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as EuroDry. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against EuroDry's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, EuroDry's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in EuroDry.

Other Forecasting Options for EuroDry

For every potential investor in EuroDry, whether a beginner or expert, EuroDry's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EuroDry Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EuroDry. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EuroDry's price trends.

EuroDry Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EuroDry stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EuroDry could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EuroDry by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

EuroDry Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of EuroDry's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of EuroDry's current price.

EuroDry Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EuroDry stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EuroDry shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EuroDry stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EuroDry entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

EuroDry Risk Indicators

The analysis of EuroDry's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EuroDry's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eurodry stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards EuroDry in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, EuroDry's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from EuroDry options trading.

Pair Trading with EuroDry

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if EuroDry position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in EuroDry will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with EuroDry Stock

  0.82SB Safe Bulkers Financial Report 8th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.67SB-PC Safe BulkersPairCorr

Moving against EuroDry Stock

  0.62NAT Nordic American Tankers Financial Report 27th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.6GLBS Globus MaritimePairCorr
  0.59GASS StealthGasPairCorr
  0.57DAC Danaos Financial Report 20th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.55PSHG Performance ShippingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to EuroDry could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace EuroDry when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back EuroDry - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling EuroDry to buy it.
The correlation of EuroDry is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as EuroDry moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if EuroDry moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for EuroDry can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether EuroDry offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of EuroDry's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Eurodry Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Eurodry Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EuroDry to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy EuroDry Stock please use our How to Invest in EuroDry guide.
You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.

Complementary Tools for EuroDry Stock analysis

When running EuroDry's price analysis, check to measure EuroDry's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy EuroDry is operating at the current time. Most of EuroDry's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of EuroDry's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move EuroDry's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of EuroDry to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is EuroDry's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of EuroDry. If investors know EuroDry will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about EuroDry listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.94)
Earnings Share
(1.05)
Revenue Per Share
17.224
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.052
Return On Assets
0.0032
The market value of EuroDry is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of EuroDry that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of EuroDry's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is EuroDry's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because EuroDry's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect EuroDry's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between EuroDry's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if EuroDry is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, EuroDry's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.