New Oriental Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

EDU -  USA Stock  

USD 2.21  0.72  24.57%

New Oriental Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast New Oriental historical stock prices and determine the direction of New Oriental Education's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of New Oriental historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although New Oriental naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of New Oriental Education systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of New Oriental fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Oriental to cross-verify your projections.

Search Stock Forecast 

 
Refresh
Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.56 in 2021. Weighted Average Shares is likely to gain to about 1.9 B in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to gain to about 1.9 B in 2021.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-08-20 New Oriental Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast New Oriental's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest New Oriental's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies New Oriental stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current New Oriental's open interest, investors have to compare it to New Oriental's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of New Oriental is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in New Oriental. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in New Oriental cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the New Oriental's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets New Oriental's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for New Oriental is based on an artificially constructed time series of New Oriental daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

New Oriental 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of New Oriental Education on the next trading day is expected to be 4.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.97, mean absolute percentage error of 1.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.44. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Oriental Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Oriental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

New Oriental Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest New OrientalNew Oriental Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

New Oriental Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting New Oriental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Oriental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0221 and 14.07, respectively. We have considered New Oriental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.21
26th of July 2021
0.0221
Downside
4.93
Expected Value
14.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Oriental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Oriental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria103.944
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.8892
MADMean absolute deviation0.9706
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1584
SAESum of the absolute errors51.44
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. New Oriental Education 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for New Oriental

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Oriental Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Oriental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of New Oriental in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.152.9311.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.316.1215.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
4.026.859.68
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
8.6015.8022.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as New Oriental. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against New Oriental's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, New Oriental's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in New Oriental Education.

Other Forecasting Options for New Oriental

For every potential investor in New Oriental, whether a beginner or expert, New Oriental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Oriental Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New Oriental. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Oriental's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Oriental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Oriental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Oriental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

New Oriental Education Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of New Oriental's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of New Oriental's current price.

New Oriental Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Oriental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Oriental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Oriental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify New Oriental Education entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

New Oriental Risk Indicators

The analysis of New Oriental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Oriental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting New Oriental stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

New Oriental Investors Sentiment

The influence of New Oriental's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in New Oriental. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - EDU

New Oriental Education Investor Sentiment

Greater number of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on New Oriental Education. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in New Oriental Education? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
Skip

Pair Trading with New Oriental

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if New Oriental position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in New Oriental will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

New Oriental Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for New Oriental and Elite Education Group. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Oriental to cross-verify your projections. Note that the New Oriental Education information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other New Oriental's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Complementary Tools for New Oriental Stock analysis

When running New Oriental Education price analysis, check to measure New Oriental's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New Oriental is operating at the current time. Most of New Oriental's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New Oriental's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New Oriental's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New Oriental to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Companies Directory
Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals
Go
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Go
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Go
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Go
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Go
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
The market value of New Oriental Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of New Oriental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of New Oriental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is New Oriental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because New Oriental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect New Oriental Education underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between New Oriental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine New Oriental value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, New Oriental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.