New Oriental Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

EDU -  USA Stock  

USD 2.36  0.17  7.76%

New Oriental Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast New Oriental historical stock prices and determine the direction of New Oriental Education's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of New Oriental historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although New Oriental naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of New Oriental Education systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of New Oriental fundamentals over time.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Oriental to cross-verify your projections.

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Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.56 in 2021. Weighted Average Shares is likely to gain to about 1.9 B in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to gain to about 1.9 B in 2021.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-08-20 New Oriental Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast New Oriental's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest New Oriental's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies New Oriental stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current New Oriental's open interest, investors have to compare it to New Oriental's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of New Oriental is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in New Oriental. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in New Oriental cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the New Oriental's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets New Oriental's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for New Oriental works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

New Oriental Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Oriental Education on the next trading day is expected to be 2.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.30. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Oriental Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Oriental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

New Oriental Stock Forecast Pattern

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New Oriental Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting New Oriental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Oriental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0236 and 12.53, respectively. We have considered New Oriental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.36
28th of July 2021
0.0236
Downside
2.34
Expected Value
12.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Oriental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Oriental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1956
MADMean absolute deviation0.5305
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0807
SAESum of the absolute errors31.3
When New Oriental Education prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any New Oriental Education trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent New Oriental observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for New Oriental

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Oriental Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Oriental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of New Oriental in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.122.3812.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.255.0515.24
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
3.5013.2222.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.260.280.29
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as New Oriental. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against New Oriental's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, New Oriental's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in New Oriental Education.

Other Forecasting Options for New Oriental

For every potential investor in New Oriental, whether a beginner or expert, New Oriental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Oriental Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New Oriental. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Oriental's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Oriental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Oriental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Oriental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

New Oriental Education Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of New Oriental's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of New Oriental's current price.

New Oriental Risk Indicators

The analysis of New Oriental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Oriental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting New Oriental stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in New Oriental without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with New Oriental

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if New Oriental position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in New Oriental will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

New Oriental Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for New Oriental and Elite Education Group. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Oriental to cross-verify your projections. Note that the New Oriental Education information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other New Oriental's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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When running New Oriental Education price analysis, check to measure New Oriental's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New Oriental is operating at the current time. Most of New Oriental's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New Oriental's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New Oriental's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New Oriental to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of New Oriental Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of New Oriental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of New Oriental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is New Oriental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because New Oriental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect New Oriental Education underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between New Oriental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine New Oriental value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, New Oriental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.