# Ensign Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

EGB Stock | EUR 88.00 0.50 0.57% |

Ensign Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ensign stock prices and determine the direction of The Ensign Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Ensign historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ensign to cross-verify your projections. Ensign |

Most investors in Ensign cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ensign's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ensign's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

A naive forecasting model for Ensign is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of The Ensign Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. ## Ensign Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of The Ensign Group on the next trading day is expected to be 88.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ensign Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ensign's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

## Ensign Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ensign | Ensign Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |

## Ensign Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ensign's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ensign's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 87.48 and 90.19, respectively. We have considered Ensign's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

## Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ensign stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ensign stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.285 |

Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |

MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8298 |

MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |

SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.6206 |

## Predictive Modules for Ensign

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ensign Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ensign's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ensign in the context of predictive analytics.

## Other Forecasting Options for Ensign

For every potential investor in Ensign, whether a beginner or expert, Ensign's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ensign Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ensign. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ensign's price trends.## Ensign Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ensign stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ensign could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ensign by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Risk & Return | Correlation |

## Ensign Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ensign's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ensign's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||

Math Operators | ||

Math Transform | ||

Momentum Indicators | ||

Overlap Studies | ||

Pattern Recognition | ||

Price Transform | ||

Statistic Functions | ||

Volatility Indicators | ||

Volume Indicators |

## Ensign Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ensign's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ensign's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Ensign stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

Mean Deviation | 0.9789 | |||

Semi Deviation | 1.16 | |||

Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||

Variance | 1.83 | |||

Downside Variance | 2.31 | |||

Semi Variance | 1.33 | |||

Expected Short fall | (1.27) |

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ensign in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ensign's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ensign options trading.

## Pair Trading with Ensign

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ensign position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ensign will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.### Moving together with Ensign Stock

### Moving against Ensign Stock

- | 0.82 | RH7 | Ryman Healthcare | PairCorr | ||

- | 0.71 | SSUN | Samsung Electronics | PairCorr | ||

- | 0.69 | SSUN | Samsung Electronics | PairCorr | ||

- | 0.6 | SSU | Samsung Electronics | PairCorr | ||

- | 0.58 | SSU | Samsung Electronics | PairCorr |

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ensign could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ensign when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ensign - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling The Ensign Group to buy it.

The correlation of Ensign is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ensign moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ensign Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ensign can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ensign to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

## Complementary Tools for Ensign Stock analysis

When running Ensign's price analysis, check to measure Ensign's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ensign is operating at the current time. Most of Ensign's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ensign's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ensign's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ensign to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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