Eagle Bancorp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

EGBN Stock  USD 23.49  0.33  1.42%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eagle Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.66 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.56  and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.10. Eagle Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Eagle Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of Eagle Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Eagle Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Eagle Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Eagle Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Eagle Bancorp fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eagle Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Eagle Stock, please use our How to Invest in Eagle Bancorp guide.
  
As of the 28th of March 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 23.17, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 2.74. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 33.7 B. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 170.2 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Eagle Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Eagle Bancorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Eagle Bancorp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Eagle Bancorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Eagle Bancorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Eagle Bancorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Eagle Bancorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Eagle. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Eagle Bancorp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Eagle Bancorp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Eagle Bancorp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Eagle Bancorp works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Eagle Bancorp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eagle Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eagle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eagle Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eagle Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Eagle BancorpEagle Bancorp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Eagle Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eagle Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eagle Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.01 and 26.31, respectively. We have considered Eagle Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
23.49
23.66
Expected Value
26.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eagle Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eagle Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1343
MADMean absolute deviation0.5611
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0228
SAESum of the absolute errors33.1049
When Eagle Bancorp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Eagle Bancorp trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Eagle Bancorp observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Eagle Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eagle Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eagle Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.7523.4026.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.9122.5625.21
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
22.3724.5827.28
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.570.580.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Eagle Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Eagle Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Eagle Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Eagle Bancorp.

Other Forecasting Options for Eagle Bancorp

For every potential investor in Eagle, whether a beginner or expert, Eagle Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eagle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eagle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eagle Bancorp's price trends.

Eagle Bancorp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eagle Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eagle Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eagle Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Eagle Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eagle Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eagle Bancorp's current price.

Eagle Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eagle Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eagle Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eagle Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eagle Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Eagle Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eagle Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eagle Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eagle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Eagle Bancorp Investors Sentiment

The influence of Eagle Bancorp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Eagle. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Eagle Bancorp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Eagle. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Eagle can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Eagle Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Eagle Bancorp's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Eagle Bancorp's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Eagle Bancorp's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Eagle Bancorp.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Eagle Bancorp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Eagle Bancorp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Eagle Bancorp options trading.

Pair Trading with Eagle Bancorp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Eagle Bancorp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Eagle Bancorp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Eagle Stock

  0.94MBCN Middlefield Banc Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.77MBWM Mercantile Bank Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Eagle Stock

  0.88NU Nu Holdings Sell-off TrendPairCorr
  0.87KB KB Financial Group Financial Report 20th of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.85WF Woori Financial Group Financial Report 21st of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.84RF-PB Regions FinancialPairCorr
  0.81RF-PC Regions FinancialPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Eagle Bancorp could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Eagle Bancorp when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Eagle Bancorp - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Eagle Bancorp to buy it.
The correlation of Eagle Bancorp is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Eagle Bancorp moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Eagle Bancorp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Eagle Bancorp can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Eagle Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Eagle Bancorp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Eagle Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Eagle Bancorp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eagle Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Eagle Stock, please use our How to Invest in Eagle Bancorp guide.
Note that the Eagle Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Eagle Bancorp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for Eagle Stock analysis

When running Eagle Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Eagle Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Eagle Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Eagle Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Eagle Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Eagle Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Eagle Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
AI Portfolio Architect
Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities
Commodity Channel
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Economic Indicators
Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Funds Screener
Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges
Stocks Directory
Find actively traded stocks across global markets
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Investing Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Is Eagle Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Eagle Bancorp. If investors know Eagle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Eagle Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.49)
Dividend Share
1.8
Earnings Share
3.31
Revenue Per Share
9.254
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.32)
The market value of Eagle Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Eagle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Eagle Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Eagle Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Eagle Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Eagle Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Eagle Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Eagle Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Eagle Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.