Erie Indemnity Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ERIE Stock | USD 382.21 0.65 0.17% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Erie Indemnity on the next trading day is expected to be 388.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 378.37. Erie Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Erie Indemnity stock prices and determine the direction of Erie Indemnity's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Erie Indemnity's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Erie Indemnity's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Erie Indemnity's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Erie Indemnity fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Erie Indemnity to cross-verify your projections. Erie |
Most investors in Erie Indemnity cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Erie Indemnity's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Erie Indemnity's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Erie Indemnity is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Erie Indemnity value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Erie Indemnity Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Erie Indemnity on the next trading day is expected to be 388.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.20, mean absolute percentage error of 78.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 378.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Erie Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Erie Indemnity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Erie Indemnity Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Erie Indemnity | Erie Indemnity Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Erie Indemnity Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Erie Indemnity's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Erie Indemnity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 386.36 and 389.99, respectively. We have considered Erie Indemnity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Erie Indemnity stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Erie Indemnity stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.4737 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.2028 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 378.372 |
Predictive Modules for Erie Indemnity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Erie Indemnity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Erie Indemnity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Erie Indemnity
For every potential investor in Erie, whether a beginner or expert, Erie Indemnity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Erie Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Erie. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Erie Indemnity's price trends.Erie Indemnity Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Erie Indemnity stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Erie Indemnity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Erie Indemnity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Erie Indemnity Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Erie Indemnity's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Erie Indemnity's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Erie Indemnity Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Erie Indemnity stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Erie Indemnity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Erie Indemnity stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Erie Indemnity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Erie Indemnity Risk Indicators
The analysis of Erie Indemnity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Erie Indemnity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting erie stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Variance | 3.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Erie Indemnity
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Erie Indemnity position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Erie Indemnity will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Erie Stock
| 0.76 | AJG | Arthur J Gallagher Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | AON | Aon PLC Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Moving against Erie Stock
| 0.64 | FANH | Fanhua Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.52 | DHIL | Diamond Hill Investment | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | ALIZY | Allianz SE ADR | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | EHTH | eHealth Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Erie Indemnity could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Erie Indemnity when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Erie Indemnity - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Erie Indemnity to buy it.
The correlation of Erie Indemnity is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Erie Indemnity moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Erie Indemnity moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Erie Indemnity can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Erie Indemnity to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Erie Stock refer to our How to Trade Erie Stock guide.You can also try the AI Investment Finder module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Erie Stock analysis
When running Erie Indemnity's price analysis, check to measure Erie Indemnity's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Erie Indemnity is operating at the current time. Most of Erie Indemnity's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Erie Indemnity's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Erie Indemnity's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Erie Indemnity to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Erie Indemnity's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Erie Indemnity. If investors know Erie will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Erie Indemnity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Erie Indemnity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Erie that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Erie Indemnity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Erie Indemnity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Erie Indemnity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Erie Indemnity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Erie Indemnity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Erie Indemnity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Erie Indemnity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.