Eaton Vance Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ERSGX -  USA Fund  

USD 16.20  0.07  0.43%

Eaton Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Eaton Vance historical stock prices and determine the direction of Eaton Vance Small-Cap's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Eaton Vance historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eaton Vance to cross-verify your projections.

Eaton Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Eaton Vance cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Eaton Vance's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Eaton Vance's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Eaton Vance works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Eaton Vance Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eaton Vance Small-Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 16.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.024062, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.95. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eaton Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eaton Vance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eaton Vance Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Eaton Vance Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eaton Vance's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eaton Vance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.21 and 17.06, respectively. We have considered Eaton Vance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.20
30th of November 2021
16.13
Expected Value
17.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eaton Vance mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eaton Vance mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0046
MADMean absolute deviation0.1158
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0072
SAESum of the absolute errors6.9481
When Eaton Vance Small-Cap prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Eaton Vance Small-Cap trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Eaton Vance observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Eaton Vance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eaton Vance Small-Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eaton Vance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Eaton Vance in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
15.2116.1317.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
15.2616.1817.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
15.5016.6217.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Eaton Vance. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Eaton Vance's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Eaton Vance's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Eaton Vance Small-Cap.

Other Forecasting Options for Eaton Vance

For every potential investor in Eaton, whether a beginner or expert, Eaton Vance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eaton Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eaton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eaton Vance's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eaton Vance mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eaton Vance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eaton Vance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Eaton Vance Small-Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eaton Vance's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eaton Vance's current price.

Eaton Vance Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eaton Vance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eaton Vance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Eaton Vance stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Eaton Vance Investors Sentiment

The influence of Eaton Vance's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Eaton. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Eaton Vance in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Eaton Vance's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Eaton Vance options trading.

Current Sentiment - ERSGX

Eaton Vance Small-Cap Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are insensible in their opinion about investing in Eaton Vance Small-Cap. What is your opinion about investing in Eaton Vance Small-Cap? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Eaton Vance

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Eaton Vance position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Eaton Vance will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Eaton Vance Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Eaton Vance and Janus Henderson Triton. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eaton Vance to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Eaton Vance Small-Cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Eaton Vance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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When running Eaton Vance Small-Cap price analysis, check to measure Eaton Vance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Eaton Vance is operating at the current time. Most of Eaton Vance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Eaton Vance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Eaton Vance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Eaton Vance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Eaton Vance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Eaton Vance value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Eaton Vance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.