Eaton Vance Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ERSGX Fund  USD 14.21  0.06  0.42%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eaton Vance Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 14.21 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.09  and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.22. Eaton Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Eaton Vance stock prices and determine the direction of Eaton Vance Small Cap's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Eaton Vance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eaton Vance to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Eaton Vance cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Eaton Vance's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Eaton Vance's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Eaton Vance works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Eaton Vance Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eaton Vance Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 14.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eaton Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eaton Vance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Eaton Vance Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Eaton VanceEaton Vance Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Eaton Vance Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Eaton Vance's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eaton Vance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.28 and 15.14, respectively. We have considered Eaton Vance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.21
14.21
Expected Value
15.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eaton Vance mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eaton Vance mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0169
MADMean absolute deviation0.0884
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0066
SAESum of the absolute errors5.2184
When Eaton Vance Small Cap prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Eaton Vance Small Cap trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Eaton Vance observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Eaton Vance

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eaton Vance Small-cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Eaton Vance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.2814.2115.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.9412.8715.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Eaton Vance. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Eaton Vance's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Eaton Vance's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Eaton Vance Small-cap.

Other Forecasting Options for Eaton Vance

For every potential investor in Eaton, whether a beginner or expert, Eaton Vance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eaton Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eaton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eaton Vance's price trends.

Eaton Vance Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eaton Vance mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eaton Vance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eaton Vance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Eaton Vance Small-cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Eaton Vance's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Eaton Vance's current price.

Eaton Vance Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eaton Vance mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eaton Vance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eaton Vance mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Eaton Vance Small Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Eaton Vance Risk Indicators

The analysis of Eaton Vance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eaton Vance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eaton mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Eaton Vance in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Eaton Vance's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Eaton Vance options trading.

Pair Trading with Eaton Vance

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Eaton Vance position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Eaton Vance will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Eaton Mutual Fund

  0.78USG USCF Gold Strategy Symbol ChangePairCorr
  0.94ECRAX Eaton Vance RichardPairCorr
  1.0ECSMX Eaton Vance Small-capPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Eaton Vance could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Eaton Vance when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Eaton Vance - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Eaton Vance Small Cap to buy it.
The correlation of Eaton Vance is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Eaton Vance moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Eaton Vance Small-cap moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Eaton Vance can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eaton Vance to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Eaton Vance Small-cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Eaton Vance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.

Complementary Tools for Eaton Mutual Fund analysis

When running Eaton Vance's price analysis, check to measure Eaton Vance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Eaton Vance is operating at the current time. Most of Eaton Vance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Eaton Vance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Eaton Vance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Eaton Vance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Eaton Vance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Eaton Vance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Eaton Vance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.