Franklin Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FAAAX Fund | USD 10.84 0.02 0.18% |
Franklin Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Franklin stock prices and determine the direction of Franklin K2 Alternative's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Franklin historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franklin to cross-verify your projections. Franklin |
Most investors in Franklin cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Franklin's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Franklin's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Franklin is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Franklin K2 Alternative value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Franklin Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Franklin K2 Alternative on the next trading day is expected to be 10.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.016192, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00044185, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Franklin Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Franklin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Franklin Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Franklin Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Franklin's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Franklin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.71 and 11.02, respectively. We have considered Franklin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Franklin mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Franklin mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.386 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0162 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.9877 |
Predictive Modules for Franklin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Franklin K2 Alternative. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Franklin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Franklin in the context of predictive analytics.
Other Forecasting Options for Franklin
For every potential investor in Franklin, whether a beginner or expert, Franklin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Franklin Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Franklin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Franklin's price trends.Franklin Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Franklin mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Franklin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Franklin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Franklin K2 Alternative Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Franklin's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Franklin's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Franklin Risk Indicators
The analysis of Franklin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Franklin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Franklin stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1032 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1532 | |||
| Variance | 0.0235 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Franklin in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Franklin's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Franklin options trading.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Franklin K2 Alternative using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franklin to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Franklin K2 Alternative information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Franklin's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Complementary Tools for Franklin Mutual Fund analysis
When running Franklin's price analysis, check to measure Franklin's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Franklin is operating at the current time. Most of Franklin's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Franklin's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Franklin's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Franklin to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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