Franklin Income Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

FCISX Fund  USD 2.35  0.01  0.43%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Franklin Income Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 2.36 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.02  and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.95. Franklin Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Franklin Income stock prices and determine the direction of Franklin Income Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Franklin Income's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franklin Income to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Franklin Income cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Franklin Income's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Franklin Income's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Franklin Income price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Franklin Income Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Franklin Income Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 2.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.95.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Franklin Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Franklin Income's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Franklin Income Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Franklin Income Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Franklin Income's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Franklin Income's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.97 and 2.74, respectively. We have considered Franklin Income's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.35
2.36
Expected Value
2.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Franklin Income mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Franklin Income mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.929
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0153
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0066
SAESum of the absolute errors0.9503
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Franklin Income Fund historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Franklin Income

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Franklin Me Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Franklin Income's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.972.352.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.972.352.73
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Franklin Income. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Franklin Income's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Franklin Income's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Franklin Me Fund.

Other Forecasting Options for Franklin Income

For every potential investor in Franklin, whether a beginner or expert, Franklin Income's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Franklin Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Franklin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Franklin Income's price trends.

Franklin Income Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Franklin Income mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Franklin Income could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Franklin Income by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Franklin Me Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Franklin Income's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Franklin Income's current price.

Franklin Income Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Franklin Income mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Franklin Income shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Franklin Income mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Franklin Income Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Franklin Income Risk Indicators

The analysis of Franklin Income's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Franklin Income's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting franklin mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Franklin Income in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Franklin Income's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Franklin Income options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franklin Income to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Franklin Income's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Franklin Income is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Franklin Income's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.