Ferrexpo PLC Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Regression

FEEXF Stock  USD 0.56  0.02  3.45%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ferrexpo PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.71 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.10  and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.15. Ferrexpo Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ferrexpo PLC stock prices and determine the direction of Ferrexpo PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ferrexpo PLC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ferrexpo PLC to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Ferrexpo PLC cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ferrexpo PLC's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ferrexpo PLC's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Ferrexpo PLC price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Ferrexpo PLC Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ferrexpo PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ferrexpo Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ferrexpo PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ferrexpo PLC Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Ferrexpo PLC Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ferrexpo PLC's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ferrexpo PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 6.49, respectively. We have considered Ferrexpo PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.56
0.71
Expected Value
6.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ferrexpo PLC pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ferrexpo PLC pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.7549
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1008
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1156
SAESum of the absolute errors6.1511
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Ferrexpo PLC historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Ferrexpo PLC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ferrexpo PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ferrexpo PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.030.566.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.030.546.32
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ferrexpo PLC. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ferrexpo PLC's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ferrexpo PLC's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ferrexpo PLC.

Other Forecasting Options for Ferrexpo PLC

For every potential investor in Ferrexpo, whether a beginner or expert, Ferrexpo PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ferrexpo Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ferrexpo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ferrexpo PLC's price trends.

Ferrexpo PLC Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ferrexpo PLC pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ferrexpo PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ferrexpo PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ferrexpo PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ferrexpo PLC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ferrexpo PLC's current price.

Ferrexpo PLC Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ferrexpo PLC pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ferrexpo PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ferrexpo PLC pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Ferrexpo PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ferrexpo PLC Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ferrexpo PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ferrexpo PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ferrexpo pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ferrexpo PLC in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ferrexpo PLC's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ferrexpo PLC options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ferrexpo PLC to cross-verify your projections.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Ferrexpo PLC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ferrexpo PLC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ferrexpo PLC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.