FIRST EAGLE Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for FIRST EAGLE is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of FIRST EAGLE HIGH value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

FIRST EAGLE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of FIRST EAGLE HIGH on the next trading day is expected to be 7.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01552, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00045444, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.96.

FIRST EAGLE Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest FIRST EAGLE

FIRST EAGLE Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

FIRST EAGLE Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FIRST EAGLE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FIRST EAGLE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of FIRST EAGLE HIGH. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict FIRST EAGLE. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for FIRST EAGLE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FIRST EAGLE HIGH. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 7.67 7.93 8.19 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 7.65 7.91 8.17 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 7.90 7.92 7.95 Details

Other Forecasting Options for FIRST EAGLE

For every potential investor in FIRST, whether a beginner or expert, FIRST EAGLE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FIRST Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FIRST. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FIRST EAGLE's price trends.

FIRST EAGLE Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

FIRST EAGLE HIGH Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FIRST EAGLE's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FIRST EAGLE's current price.

FIRST EAGLE Risk Indicators

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as FIRST EAGLE HIGH using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for FIRST Mutual Fund analysis

Financial Analysis Details

Buy or Sell Advice Details

Technical Analysis Details

Please note, there is a significant difference between FIRST EAGLE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FIRST EAGLE is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FIRST EAGLE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party. $(function(){ //alert('FEHAX'); displaySymbolSentimentChart('FEHAX','sentimentChart'); });