First Eagle Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

FEHAX -  USA Fund  

USD 8.91  0.02  0.23%

First Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Eagle historical stock prices and determine the direction of First Eagle High's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of First Eagle historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Eagle to cross-verify your projections.

First Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
Refresh
Most investors in First Eagle cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First Eagle's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First Eagle's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for First Eagle High is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

First Eagle 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 22nd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of First Eagle High on the next trading day is expected to be 8.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00058794, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.14. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Eagle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First Eagle Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest First EagleFirst Eagle Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

First Eagle Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First Eagle's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Eagle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.74 and 9.05, respectively. We have considered First Eagle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.91
21st of January 2022
8.89
Expected Value
9.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Eagle mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Eagle mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria103.3201
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0036
MADMean absolute deviation0.02
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0022
SAESum of the absolute errors1.14
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of First Eagle. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for First Eagle High and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for First Eagle

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Eagle High. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of First Eagle in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.758.919.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.768.929.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
8.898.948.99
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Eagle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Eagle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Eagle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in First Eagle High.

Other Forecasting Options for First Eagle

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Eagle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Eagle's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Eagle mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Eagle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Eagle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

First Eagle High Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Eagle's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Eagle's current price.

First Eagle Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Eagle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Eagle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting First Eagle stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in First Eagle without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Headlines Timeline Now

   

Headlines Timeline

Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
All  Next Launch Module

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as First Eagle High using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Eagle to cross-verify your projections. Note that the First Eagle High information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other First Eagle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

Complementary Tools for First Mutual Fund analysis

When running First Eagle High price analysis, check to measure First Eagle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Eagle is operating at the current time. Most of First Eagle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Eagle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Eagle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Eagle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Comparator
Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account
Go
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Go
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Go
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Go
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine First Eagle value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.