First Eagle Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

FEHAX -  USA Fund  

USD 8.91  0.02  0.23%

First Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Eagle historical stock prices and determine the direction of First Eagle High's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of First Eagle historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Eagle to cross-verify your projections.

First Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
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Most investors in First Eagle cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First Eagle's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First Eagle's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for First Eagle works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

First Eagle Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Eagle High on the next trading day is expected to be 8.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.010339, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00020508, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.61. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Eagle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First Eagle Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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First Eagle Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First Eagle's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Eagle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.75 and 9.07, respectively. We have considered First Eagle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.91
21st of January 2022
8.91
Expected Value
9.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Eagle mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Eagle mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0012
MADMean absolute deviation0.0103
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0012
SAESum of the absolute errors0.61
When First Eagle High prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any First Eagle High trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent First Eagle observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for First Eagle

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Eagle High. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of First Eagle in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.758.919.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.768.929.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
8.898.948.99
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Eagle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Eagle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Eagle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in First Eagle High.

Other Forecasting Options for First Eagle

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Eagle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Eagle's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Eagle mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Eagle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Eagle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

First Eagle High Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Eagle's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Eagle's current price.

First Eagle Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Eagle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Eagle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting First Eagle stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

First Eagle Investors Sentiment

The influence of First Eagle's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in First. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards First Eagle in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, First Eagle's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from First Eagle options trading.

Current Sentiment - FEHAX

First Eagle High Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are insensible in their opinion about investing in First Eagle High. What is your opinion about investing in First Eagle High? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Eagle to cross-verify your projections. Note that the First Eagle High information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other First Eagle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

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When running First Eagle High price analysis, check to measure First Eagle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Eagle is operating at the current time. Most of First Eagle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Eagle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Eagle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Eagle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between First Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine First Eagle value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.