First Eagle Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

FEHRX Fund  USD 8.18  0.01  0.12%   
First Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Eagle stock prices and determine the direction of First Eagle High's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of First Eagle historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Eagle to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in First Eagle cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First Eagle's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First Eagle's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for First Eagle is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of First Eagle High value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

First Eagle Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Eagle High on the next trading day is expected to be 8.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0007, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Eagle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First Eagle Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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First Eagle Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First Eagle's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Eagle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.92 and 8.41, respectively. We have considered First Eagle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.18
8.16
Expected Value
8.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Eagle mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Eagle mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.7739
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0176
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0022
SAESum of the absolute errors1.073
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of First Eagle High. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict First Eagle. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for First Eagle

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Eagle High. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of First Eagle in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
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Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.000.25
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Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Eagle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Eagle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Eagle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Eagle High.

Other Forecasting Options for First Eagle

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Eagle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Eagle's price trends.

First Eagle Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Eagle mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Eagle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Eagle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Vanguard High-yieldBlackrock Hi YldAmerican Funds AmericanAmerican Funds AmericanAmerican High IncomeAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational Business
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First Eagle High Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Eagle's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Eagle's current price.

First Eagle Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Eagle mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Eagle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Eagle mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify First Eagle High entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

First Eagle Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Eagle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Eagle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting First Eagle stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Eagle to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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When running First Eagle's price analysis, check to measure First Eagle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Eagle is operating at the current time. Most of First Eagle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Eagle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Eagle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Eagle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between First Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Eagle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.