Franklin Equity Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

FEIQX -  USA Fund  

USD 31.06  0.02  0.06%

Franklin Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Franklin Equity historical stock prices and determine the direction of Franklin Equity Income's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Franklin Equity historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franklin Equity to cross-verify your projections.

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Most investors in Franklin Equity cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Franklin Equity's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Franklin Equity's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Franklin Equity is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Franklin Equity Income value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Franklin Equity Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Franklin Equity Income on the next trading day is expected to be 30.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.028522, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.88. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Franklin Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Franklin Equity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Franklin Equity Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Franklin Equity Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Franklin Equity's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Franklin Equity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.21 and 31.41, respectively. We have considered Franklin Equity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
31.06
25th of September 2021
30.81
Expected Value
31.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Franklin Equity mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Franklin Equity mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.5534
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1291
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0041
SAESum of the absolute errors7.8772
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Franklin Equity Income. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Franklin Equity. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Franklin Equity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Franklin Equity Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Franklin Equity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Franklin Equity in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
30.4631.0631.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
27.9531.9332.53
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
31.2431.9432.64
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Franklin Equity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Franklin Equity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Franklin Equity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Franklin Equity Income.

Other Forecasting Options for Franklin Equity

For every potential investor in Franklin, whether a beginner or expert, Franklin Equity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Franklin Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Franklin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Franklin Equity's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Franklin Equity mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Franklin Equity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Franklin Equity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Franklin Equity Income Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Franklin Equity's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Franklin Equity's current price.

Franklin Equity Risk Indicators

The analysis of Franklin Equity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Franklin Equity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Franklin Equity stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Franklin Equity Investors Sentiment

The influence of Franklin Equity's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Franklin. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - FEIQX

Franklin Equity Income Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are insensible in their opinion about investing in Franklin Equity Income. What is your opinion about investing in Franklin Equity Income? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franklin Equity to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Franklin Equity Income information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Franklin Equity's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

Complementary Tools for Franklin Mutual Fund analysis

When running Franklin Equity Income price analysis, check to measure Franklin Equity's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Franklin Equity is operating at the current time. Most of Franklin Equity's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Franklin Equity's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Franklin Equity's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Franklin Equity to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Franklin Equity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Franklin Equity value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Franklin Equity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.