American Funds Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

FFAFX Fund  USD 73.39  0.12  0.16%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Funds The on the next trading day is expected to be 73.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.37. American Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Most investors in American Funds cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Funds' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Funds' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
American Funds polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for American Funds The as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

American Funds Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Funds The on the next trading day is expected to be 73.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.37.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Funds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Funds Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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American Funds Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Funds' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Funds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 72.40 and 74.04, respectively. We have considered American Funds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
73.39
73.22
Expected Value
74.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Funds mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Funds mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7005
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6782
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0097
SAESum of the absolute errors41.3693
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the American Funds historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for American Funds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Funds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Funds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
72.6373.4574.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
66.0575.4976.31
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
69.9772.0474.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Funds. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Funds' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Funds' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Funds.

Other Forecasting Options for American Funds

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Funds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Funds' price trends.

American Funds Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Funds mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Funds could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Funds by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American Funds Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Funds' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Funds' current price.

American Funds Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Funds mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Funds shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Funds mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify American Funds The entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

American Funds Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Funds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Funds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in American Mutual Fund

American Funds financial ratios help investors to determine whether American Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in American with respect to the benefits of owning American Funds security.
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