Fa529 Gr Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

FGDPX Fund  USD 55.22  1.60  2.82%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fa529 Gr Op on the next trading day is expected to be 54.51 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.46  and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.03. Fa529 Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fa529 Gr stock prices and determine the direction of Fa529 Gr Op's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fa529 Gr's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of Fa529 Gr to check your projections.
  
Most investors in Fa529 Gr cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fa529 Gr's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fa529 Gr's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Fa529 Gr is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fa529 Gr Op value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Fa529 Gr Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fa529 Gr Op on the next trading day is expected to be 54.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.03.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fa529 Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fa529 Gr's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fa529 Gr Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Fa529 Gr Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fa529 Gr's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fa529 Gr's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 53.27 and 55.74, respectively. We have considered Fa529 Gr's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
55.22
54.51
Expected Value
55.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fa529 Gr mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fa529 Gr mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.1356
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4595
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.008
SAESum of the absolute errors28.031
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Fa529 Gr Op. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Fa529 Gr. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Fa529 Gr

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fa529 Gr Op. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fa529 Gr's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.001.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.001.23
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
55.8958.6061.31
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fa529 Gr. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fa529 Gr's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fa529 Gr's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fa529 Gr Op.

Other Forecasting Options for Fa529 Gr

For every potential investor in Fa529, whether a beginner or expert, Fa529 Gr's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fa529 Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fa529. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fa529 Gr's price trends.

Fa529 Gr Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fa529 Gr mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fa529 Gr could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fa529 Gr by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fa529 Gr Op Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fa529 Gr's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fa529 Gr's current price.

Fa529 Gr Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fa529 Gr mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fa529 Gr shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fa529 Gr mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Fa529 Gr Op entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fa529 Gr Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fa529 Gr's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fa529 Gr's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fa529 mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out fundamental analysis of Fa529 Gr to check your projections.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Fa529 Gr's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fa529 Gr is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fa529 Gr's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.