First Hawaiian Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FHB Stock | USD 22.21 0.25 1.14% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Hawaiian on the next trading day is expected to be 21.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.27. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Hawaiian stock prices and determine the direction of First Hawaiian's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Hawaiian's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although First Hawaiian's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of First Hawaiian's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Hawaiian fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Hawaiian to cross-verify your projections. First |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Hawaiian's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Hawaiian's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Hawaiian stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Hawaiian's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Hawaiian's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Hawaiian is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in First Hawaiian cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First Hawaiian's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First Hawaiian's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for First Hawaiian is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of First Hawaiian value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. First Hawaiian Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Hawaiian on the next trading day is expected to be 21.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Hawaiian's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Hawaiian Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Hawaiian | First Hawaiian Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Hawaiian Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Hawaiian's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Hawaiian's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.27 and 23.48, respectively. We have considered First Hawaiian's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Hawaiian stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Hawaiian stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2156 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3159 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.27 |
Predictive Modules for First Hawaiian
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Hawaiian. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Hawaiian's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for First Hawaiian
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Hawaiian's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Hawaiian's price trends.View First Hawaiian Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Hawaiian Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Hawaiian's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Hawaiian's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Hawaiian Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Hawaiian stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Hawaiian shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Hawaiian stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Hawaiian entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Hawaiian Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Hawaiian's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Hawaiian's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Variance | 2.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.16 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.37) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Hawaiian to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.Note that the First Hawaiian information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other First Hawaiian's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Hawaiian's price analysis, check to measure First Hawaiian's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Hawaiian is operating at the current time. Most of First Hawaiian's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Hawaiian's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Hawaiian's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Hawaiian to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Pattern Recognition Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Pair Correlation Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| Cryptocurrency Center Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Competition Analyzer Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals |
Is First Hawaiian's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Hawaiian. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Hawaiian listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | Dividend Share 1.04 | Earnings Share 1.84 | Revenue Per Share 6.352 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of First Hawaiian is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Hawaiian's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Hawaiian's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Hawaiian's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Hawaiian's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Hawaiian's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Hawaiian is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Hawaiian's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.