Fulgent Genetics Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FLGT Stock | USD 20.64 0.08 0.39% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fulgent Genetics on the next trading day is expected to be 20.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.05. Fulgent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fulgent Genetics stock prices and determine the direction of Fulgent Genetics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fulgent Genetics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fulgent Genetics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fulgent Genetics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fulgent Genetics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fulgent Genetics to cross-verify your projections. Fulgent |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Fulgent Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fulgent Genetics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fulgent Genetics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fulgent Genetics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fulgent Genetics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Fulgent Genetics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fulgent Genetics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fulgent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Fulgent Genetics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fulgent Genetics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fulgent Genetics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Fulgent Genetics simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Fulgent Genetics are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Fulgent Genetics prices get older. Fulgent Genetics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fulgent Genetics on the next trading day is expected to be 20.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fulgent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fulgent Genetics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fulgent Genetics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fulgent Genetics | Fulgent Genetics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fulgent Genetics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fulgent Genetics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fulgent Genetics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.27 and 22.97, respectively. We have considered Fulgent Genetics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fulgent Genetics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fulgent Genetics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0629 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1445 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4008 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0172 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.0479 |
Predictive Modules for Fulgent Genetics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fulgent Genetics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fulgent Genetics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Fulgent Genetics
For every potential investor in Fulgent, whether a beginner or expert, Fulgent Genetics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fulgent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fulgent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fulgent Genetics' price trends.Fulgent Genetics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fulgent Genetics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fulgent Genetics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fulgent Genetics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fulgent Genetics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fulgent Genetics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fulgent Genetics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fulgent Genetics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fulgent Genetics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fulgent Genetics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fulgent Genetics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fulgent Genetics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fulgent Genetics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fulgent Genetics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fulgent Genetics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fulgent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fulgent Genetics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fulgent Genetics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fulgent Genetics options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fulgent Genetics to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Fulgent Stock please use our How to Invest in Fulgent Genetics guide.Note that the Fulgent Genetics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fulgent Genetics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for Fulgent Stock analysis
When running Fulgent Genetics' price analysis, check to measure Fulgent Genetics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fulgent Genetics is operating at the current time. Most of Fulgent Genetics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fulgent Genetics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fulgent Genetics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fulgent Genetics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Share Portfolio Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Competition Analyzer Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities | |
| AI Portfolio Architect Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities | |
| Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Top Crypto Exchanges Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges | |
| Price Exposure Probability Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation |
Is Fulgent Genetics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fulgent Genetics. If investors know Fulgent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fulgent Genetics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | Earnings Share (5.63) | Revenue Per Share 9.71 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 | Return On Assets (0.03) |
The market value of Fulgent Genetics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fulgent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fulgent Genetics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fulgent Genetics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fulgent Genetics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fulgent Genetics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fulgent Genetics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fulgent Genetics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fulgent Genetics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.