Flight Centre Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

FLT -  Australia Stock  

AUD 18.43  0.04  0.22%

Flight Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Flight Centre historical stock prices and determine the direction of Flight Centre Travel's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Flight Centre historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Flight Centre naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Flight Centre Travel systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Flight Centre fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Flight Centre to cross-verify your projections.

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PPandE Turnover is likely to rise to 13.04 in 2021. Receivables Turnover is likely to rise to 5.14 in 2021. Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 99.9 M in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 100 M in 2021.
Most investors in Flight Centre cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Flight Centre's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Flight Centre's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Flight Centre polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Flight Centre Travel as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Flight Centre Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Flight Centre Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 21.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.88, mean absolute percentage error of 39.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,265. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Flight Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Flight Centre's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Flight Centre Stock Forecast Pattern

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Flight Centre Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Flight Centre's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Flight Centre's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.75 and 25.57, respectively. We have considered Flight Centre's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.43
22nd of September 2021
21.16
Expected Value
25.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Flight Centre stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Flight Centre stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria862.4425
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation4.8813
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.2766
SAESum of the absolute errors2264.945
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Flight Centre historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Flight Centre

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Flight Centre Travel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Flight Centre's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Flight Centre in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
15.3318.4321.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14.2017.3020.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
18.0718.3218.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Flight Centre. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Flight Centre's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Flight Centre's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Flight Centre Travel.

Other Forecasting Options for Flight Centre

For every potential investor in Flight, whether a beginner or expert, Flight Centre's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Flight Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Flight. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Flight Centre's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Flight Centre stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Flight Centre could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Flight Centre by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Flight Centre Travel Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Flight Centre's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Flight Centre's current price.

Flight Centre Risk Indicators

The analysis of Flight Centre's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Flight Centre's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Flight Centre stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Flight Centre without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Flight Centre to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Flight Centre Travel information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Flight Centre's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fund Screener module to find activelly-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for Flight Stock analysis

When running Flight Centre Travel price analysis, check to measure Flight Centre's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Flight Centre is operating at the current time. Most of Flight Centre's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Flight Centre's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Flight Centre's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Flight Centre to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Flight Centre's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Flight Centre value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Flight Centre's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.