First Bancorp Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

FNLC Stock

USD 25.89 0.26 1.01%

First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Bancorp historical stock prices and determine the direction of First Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of First Bancorp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although First Bancorp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of First Bancorp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Bancorp fundamentals over time.

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.

First Bancorp Asset Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Asset Turnover was at 0.034. First Bancorp Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares was at 519,000.

Open Interest Agains t 2023-04-21 First Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Bancorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest First Bancorp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies First Bancorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.

Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Bancorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Bancorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Bancorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Most investors in First Bancorp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First Bancorp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First Bancorp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

First Bancorp polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for First Bancorp as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

More About Polynomial Regression All Equity Analysis

First Bancorp Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.47.

Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

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First Bancorp Price Prediction

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First Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.48 and 26.22, respectively. We have considered First Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

Market Value 25.89

23.48

Downside

24.85

Expected Value

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

26.22

Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	118.6532
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.4431
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0156
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	27.4722

A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the First Bancorp historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a₀ + a₁*X + a₂*X² + a₃*X³ + ... + a_m*X^m

Predictive Modules for First Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of First Bancorp in the context of predictive analytics.

Hype

Prediction

Low	Estimated Value	High
24.57	25.94	27.31

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Real Value	High
25.65	27.02	28.39

Details

Bollinger

Band Projection (param)

Lower	Middle Band	Upper
25.05	28.35	31.66

Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in First Bancorp.

Other Forecasting Options for First Bancorp

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Bancorp's price trends.

First Bancorp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Kaiser AluminumDmc GlobalGrupo Simec SABOrbit Garant DrillingSuperior DrillingArcelorMittal SA ADRDiamond Offshore DrillingNabors IndustriesAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health Corp

Risk & Return

Correlation

First Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Bancorp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Bancorp's current price.

	Cycle Indicators
	Math Operators
	Math Transform
	Momentum Indicators
	Overlap Studies
	Pattern Recognition
	Price Transform
	Statistic Functions
	Volatility Indicators
	Volume Indicators

First Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting First Bancorp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

	Mean Deviation	1.06
	Standard Deviation	1.38
	Variance	1.9

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in First Bancorp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running First Bancorp price analysis, check to measure First Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of First Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is First Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Bancorp. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

(0.049)

Dividend Share

1.34

Earnings Share

3.53

Revenue Per Share

8.351

Quarterly Revenue Growth

(0.06)

The market value of First Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between First Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine First Bancorp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

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	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average

First Bancorp Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

Open Interest Agains t 2023-04-21 First Option Contracts

First Bancorp Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of April

First Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

First Bancorp Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

Predictive Modules for First Bancorp

Other Forecasting Options for First Bancorp

First Bancorp Related Equities

First Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

First Bancorp Risk Indicators

Be your own money manager

Did you try this?

Run Commodity Channel Index Now

Commodity Channel Index

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Complementary Tools for analysis

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