First Bancorp Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FNLC Stock  USD 24.64  0.75  3.14%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.64 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.37  and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.05. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of First Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although First Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of First Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Bancorp fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.
  
The current year's Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 5.22, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 0.66. . The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 47.1 M, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 10.5 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 First Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Bancorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Bancorp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Bancorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Bancorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Bancorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Bancorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in First Bancorp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First Bancorp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First Bancorp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for First Bancorp - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When First Bancorp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in First Bancorp price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of First Bancorp.

First Bancorp Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

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First Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.76 and 26.53, respectively. We have considered First Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.64
24.64
Expected Value
26.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0923
MADMean absolute deviation0.3737
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0152
SAESum of the absolute errors22.046
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past First Bancorp observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older First Bancorp observations.

Predictive Modules for First Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.9423.7925.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22.8224.6626.52
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Bancorp.

Other Forecasting Options for First Bancorp

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Bancorp's price trends.

First Bancorp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Bancorp's current price.

First Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

First Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether First Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of First Bancorp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of First Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on First Bancorp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.
You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis

When running First Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure First Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of First Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is First Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Bancorp. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.28)
Dividend Share
1.39
Earnings Share
2.66
Revenue Per Share
7.225
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.16)
The market value of First Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.