Formula Systems Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| FORTY Stock | USD 75.15 0.55 0.74% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Formula Systems 1985 on the next trading day is expected to be 71.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.79. Formula Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Formula Systems stock prices and determine the direction of Formula Systems 1985's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Formula Systems' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Formula Systems' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Formula Systems' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Formula Systems fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Formula Systems to cross-verify your projections. Formula |
Most investors in Formula Systems cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Formula Systems' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Formula Systems' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Formula Systems polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Formula Systems 1985 as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Formula Systems Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Formula Systems 1985 on the next trading day is expected to be 71.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32, mean absolute percentage error of 2.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Formula Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Formula Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Formula Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Formula Systems | Formula Systems Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Formula Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Formula Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Formula Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 69.60 and 73.52, respectively. We have considered Formula Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Formula Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Formula Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0894 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3244 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0176 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 80.7901 |
Predictive Modules for Formula Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Formula Systems 1985. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Formula Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Formula Systems
For every potential investor in Formula, whether a beginner or expert, Formula Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Formula Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Formula. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Formula Systems' price trends.Formula Systems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Formula Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Formula Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Formula Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Formula Systems 1985 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Formula Systems' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Formula Systems' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Formula Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Formula Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Formula Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Formula Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Formula Systems 1985 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Formula Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Formula Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Formula Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting formula stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.33 | |||
| Variance | 5.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.91 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Formula Systems to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Complementary Tools for Formula Stock analysis
When running Formula Systems' price analysis, check to measure Formula Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Formula Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Formula Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Formula Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Formula Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Formula Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Formula Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Formula Systems. If investors know Formula will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Formula Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.04 | Dividend Share 1.277 | Earnings Share 4.07 | Revenue Per Share 171.285 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 |
The market value of Formula Systems 1985 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Formula that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Formula Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Formula Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Formula Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Formula Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Formula Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Formula Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Formula Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.