Fastly Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

FSLY Stock  USD 12.63  0.02  0.16%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fastly Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 12.63 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.69  and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.42. Fastly Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fastly stock prices and determine the direction of Fastly Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fastly's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fastly's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fastly's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fastly fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fastly to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Fastly's Payables Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to rise to 2.66 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 28.13 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 109.4 M in 2024. Net Loss is likely to rise to about (163.1 M) in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Fastly Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fastly's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fastly's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fastly stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fastly's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fastly's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fastly is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fastly. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Fastly cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fastly's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fastly's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Fastly is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Fastly Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fastly Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 12.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 1.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fastly Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fastly's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fastly Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest FastlyFastly Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Fastly Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fastly's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fastly's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.22 and 18.04, respectively. We have considered Fastly's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.63
12.63
Expected Value
18.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fastly stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fastly stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7794
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1241
MADMean absolute deviation0.6904
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0397
SAESum of the absolute errors41.425
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Fastly Inc price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Fastly. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Fastly

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fastly Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fastly's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.2812.6918.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.8715.2820.69
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.3419.0621.16
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.04-0.020.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fastly. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fastly's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fastly's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fastly Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Fastly

For every potential investor in Fastly, whether a beginner or expert, Fastly's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fastly Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fastly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fastly's price trends.

Fastly Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fastly stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fastly could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fastly by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fastly Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fastly's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fastly's current price.

Fastly Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fastly stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fastly shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fastly stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fastly Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fastly Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fastly's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fastly's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fastly stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Fastly Investors Sentiment

The influence of Fastly's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Fastly. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Fastly's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Fastly. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Fastly can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Fastly Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Fastly's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Fastly's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Fastly's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Fastly.

Fastly Implied Volatility

    
  64.93  
Fastly's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fastly Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fastly's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fastly stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fastly's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fastly in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fastly's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fastly options trading.

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When determining whether Fastly Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Fastly's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Fastly Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Fastly Inc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fastly to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.

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When running Fastly's price analysis, check to measure Fastly's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fastly is operating at the current time. Most of Fastly's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fastly's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fastly's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fastly to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fastly's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fastly. If investors know Fastly will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fastly listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.03)
Revenue Per Share
3.929
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.155
Return On Assets
(0.07)
Return On Equity
(0.14)
The market value of Fastly Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fastly that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fastly's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fastly's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fastly's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fastly's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fastly's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fastly is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fastly's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.